Thanks a lot for this highly valuable post and all the knowledge you guys share with us every two weeks! One topic that I would like to hear a more detailed explanation on is why you expect a bull cycle with two parts similar to 2013 where we are in the last third of the move (top end of 2021) vs a bull cycle with one blow off top similar to 2017 (top mid 2021). Thanks again for your work - its much appreciated
Could you please cover next time why do you see 2 tops at this run? I do agree with some of commentators here. Amazing analysis , much appreciated. The point with 2 tops stays unclear for me. I do personally see us in somewhere like we were in September - October 2017 bull run. Thanks for all you do
Another great analysis, thank you! It would be great if you could add a short explanation every time you use one of the acronyms like SOPR either in the text or with a link a footnote or glassnode. Thank you
Great post, would love to see how the increase in institutional money affects its correlation to equities. I also would be intrigued to see if the increase of institutional money only affects the floor of price or the rally/correction itself. Great work thank you for sharing!
Excellent as always but I don't understand how you reach the conclusion that we will have two blow off tops, it seems that we're going to top rather soon and that's it. Maybe you can explain further next time or on Twitter :) Cheers.
I think there is an important different in this cycle than before: the short-term hodler MAY NOT BE THE WEAK HANDS.
However, your key hypothesis is: LTH is smarter STH is weaker. Without this hypothesis, conclusions do not make sense.
In this cycle we can see a lot of companies, institutions buy bitcoin, and look at the exchange balance of the major exchange, it keeps descrease(bitstamp, kraken, coinbase..).
13&17 bull market, almost all the STH is the retail investors, but now it is totally different.
Also in the NUPL indicator, the whole market in the huge profit status, but it measures with USD, in the 20&21 QE, the USD supply almost doubled, we also need to normalize the NUPL/Realized Market Cap with the QE, as the QE is so huge that it almost never happens in all human history(except the Rome emprire).
Hi guys, highly appreciate your analysis. My question is: technically it's OK to compare 2021 to 2013 - but we have a significant change in the structural type of investor, i.e. All individual vs. high institutional content right now. The latter seems to be less sensitive both to price fluctuations (volatility) and to price levels. Does that change the perspective on predicting double top in 2021? (which would ask for Realized Cap HODL wave patter 1-2-3).
Thanks a lot for this highly valuable post and all the knowledge you guys share with us every two weeks! One topic that I would like to hear a more detailed explanation on is why you expect a bull cycle with two parts similar to 2013 where we are in the last third of the move (top end of 2021) vs a bull cycle with one blow off top similar to 2017 (top mid 2021). Thanks again for your work - its much appreciated
Could you please cover next time why do you see 2 tops at this run? I do agree with some of commentators here. Amazing analysis , much appreciated. The point with 2 tops stays unclear for me. I do personally see us in somewhere like we were in September - October 2017 bull run. Thanks for all you do
Dear journal, today I starred the RHODL Ratio metric
Another great analysis, thank you! It would be great if you could add a short explanation every time you use one of the acronyms like SOPR either in the text or with a link a footnote or glassnode. Thank you
Great post, would love to see how the increase in institutional money affects its correlation to equities. I also would be intrigued to see if the increase of institutional money only affects the floor of price or the rally/correction itself. Great work thank you for sharing!
Excellent as always but I don't understand how you reach the conclusion that we will have two blow off tops, it seems that we're going to top rather soon and that's it. Maybe you can explain further next time or on Twitter :) Cheers.
Greate Article, Thanks for sharing..
I think there is an important different in this cycle than before: the short-term hodler MAY NOT BE THE WEAK HANDS.
However, your key hypothesis is: LTH is smarter STH is weaker. Without this hypothesis, conclusions do not make sense.
In this cycle we can see a lot of companies, institutions buy bitcoin, and look at the exchange balance of the major exchange, it keeps descrease(bitstamp, kraken, coinbase..).
13&17 bull market, almost all the STH is the retail investors, but now it is totally different.
Also in the NUPL indicator, the whole market in the huge profit status, but it measures with USD, in the 20&21 QE, the USD supply almost doubled, we also need to normalize the NUPL/Realized Market Cap with the QE, as the QE is so huge that it almost never happens in all human history(except the Rome emprire).
great analysis - Though the Binance example is from Dec 2019 https://twitter.com/binance/status/1204106670420291586
Fantastic. Thank you so much for your great work and for sharing it freely.
Amazing stuff as always. Keep up the great work!
Read Bitcoin Uncharted -> Make better informed decisions -> Sleep better at night
Fantastic work, thanks!
Thanks a lot for your sharing. How can we find the logins_to_signups chart?
Hi guys, highly appreciate your analysis. My question is: technically it's OK to compare 2021 to 2013 - but we have a significant change in the structural type of investor, i.e. All individual vs. high institutional content right now. The latter seems to be less sensitive both to price fluctuations (volatility) and to price levels. Does that change the perspective on predicting double top in 2021? (which would ask for Realized Cap HODL wave patter 1-2-3).
Excellent work as usual, thank you for the update :)
OMG thank you for amazing work, especially Long term vs short term ratio it is amazing!