What's it going to be, July?

Compass 116

1. Another one bites the dust

• Bitcoin saw a promising start to the month and the third quarter of the year, registering a one-month high daily inflow of US BTC ETFs in a single day, with nearly $130 million. This bullish stance is supported by positive seasonal trends during the beginning of the summer and improved liquidity conditions, and it could launch a recovery; nevertheless, the immediate price action is telling us otherwise.

• The historical trend indicates July as a strong month for Bitcoin, being a rebound season from a generally bearish June, recording a median return of 9.6%. Despite potential sell-side pressure from the repayments to Mt. Gox creditors and the consequent FUD created from the uncertainty it creates for the investors, July seemed to guard a good omen.

• In the last Compass, we marked the importance of the Daily 20 SMA at $64K, which was the resistance that needed to be flopped to attack the Weekly 20 SMA at $65.3K. However, Bitcoin experienced a double rejection near the $64K zone. This sentiment has been transferred to the last two sessions of the week, with Bitcoin suffering and Altcoins bleeding after feeling the pressure.

Figure 1: Speedometers of BTC’s main metrics.

2. Fear is the name of the game

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