The FUD Diaries

Crypto Compass 115

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"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." – Robert Arnott

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1. FUD Flood

• Bitcoin derivatives were exposed to last month’s session on Friday’s quarterly options expiry, an event known as “Quadruple Witching”, a date involving the expiration of multiple derivative contracts, often leading to market turbulence and volatility. This event was just the end of a series of volatility turmoil happening since the beginning of the last week of the second quarter, with the unveiling of Mt. Gox creditor repayments, potentially releasing 200K BTC into the market starting in July.

• In the following days, the German government moved seized BTC to an exchange, and the US authorities did the same, with nearly 4,000 BTC worth $240 million to Coinbase. FUD sentiment flooded the market, and investors feared more downward pressure on bitcoin. After dropping 8% with the unleashing of all these FUD sentiments, bitcoin resisted, and the drop to $59K (lows of the month of May) was finally short-lived.

Figure 1: Speedometers indicating the current state of BTC.

2. Risk at Yearly Top

• Risk is at its highest level during the year, over the sentiment registered during the last week of January and between April and May. This risk increase and consequent Bitcoin correction during June have been one of the biggest since the FTX collapse, with almost a 20% drop. Over the last seven trading days,