Great article. Looks like there are two missing inputs to the price including 1) bitcoins locked up for lending and 2) the new Canadian ETF.
As an example, I read from PlanB that BlockFi has $20B Bitcoin locked up from retail and institutions who are earning 3-6% yield on their coins. That $20B is growing. There are other companies with lending like like HodlHodl, Abra, Gemini, etc.
I read the Canadian ETF is now worth $624M and growing. This should mean that this amount is getting locked up as well.
Hope this is helpful. Cheers.
These posts have made me subscribe to Glassnode. Fantastic analysis using fantastic charts. I agree with Bitcoin Daily below, The Grayscale premium has gone negative since better alternatives have recently been launched, Purpose and Evolve ETF's. Purpose is buying on Coinbase and Gemini. Ben Lilly's work "The Grayscale Effect" was tremendously powerful navigating the market. The GBTC shares are still unlocking and being sold (and seem to correlate with the negative premium), but the buying pressure on BTC Spot exchanges does not seem to be as strongly correlated as before. Where is this money going, and can we track it? Ki Young Ju suggests the Coinbase/Binance premium to track institutional buying pressure.
Yann & Jan, I am a Glassnode subscriber and your analysis helped me to use it better. I would like to really thank you for that, I am learning a lot with the letters here. I am a fan of Glassnode! It would be great to see more onchain data for other networks in the future, as Litecoin and others!
Wow! I’ve been a botcoiner for 4 years now and hodled through the last bear market. This the by far the best and most complete analysis I’ve ever read! Can’t say thank you enough!!! Phenomenal work!
Discovered Bitcoin UNCHARTRED with issue #3, and let me tell you one thing : it instantly became my favority on-chain analysis weekly read! Keep it up
I'm new to Bitcoin and while most of this went a little over my head I found it and your website to be extremely helpful and informative. I can tell that you are doing a lot of hard work and I really appreciate the work done. I'm 60 and disabled and it's really hard trying to make enough money to survive so any and all help I get really hits home.
Very legit. Thank you for posting this
I think one of the correlations that is worth discovering is BTC's movement with TSLA. TSLA has a similar path, balancing the HODL waves of institutional buys (ARK) and retail investors FOMO-ing late cycle -- I have no way to prove this other than tracking option buying since Robinhood took down its API. This created the 30% sell off ATH we saw last week sparked by higher interest rate narratives which is sensitive to long-tail, hyper growth names.
I learned a lot more today with your analysis of funding rates and SOPR. This combined with long-term 4 candle annual waves and stock-to-flow provides conviction that this cycle is not over yet.
Next level content - I cannot believe this is published on internet for free. Appreciate the utility your platform provides and am going to check if Glassnode is hiring. This type of data is invaluable - cheers
Amazing analysis as always.
Assuming capital gains tax isn’t an issue, when we reach the future projected top (200-300k), how much of your $BTC position do you trim?
And do you think the pull back from the top will pull back ~80% like in previous years or less considering there are more institutions this time around? Or do you see a super cycle on the horizon?
Bravo, great stuff.
I hate to admit this, but I feel guilty getting access to this type of high quality analysis for free. offer me a lifetime (low rate special now) and I'll gladly pay. Thank you! Thank you!
Great analysis! It provides valuable insights for all bitcoiners to navigate the market. Thank you, Yann & Jan!
Best analysis out there. Every point is data backed. Setting the benchmark real high
Amazing and insightful analysis. These articles really help me direct my crypto investment plans in the near term.
Could you leave some email for private inquiry that isn't suitable to be posted as a comment? Thank you.