The Bull Clock is Ticking

Compass 135

No Country for Old Men.

• Bitcoin’s monthly close is about to teach a lesson to all those who blindly rely on historical records to predict BTC's next move. At the beginning of the month, our analysis suggested that September shouldn't be prematurely written off as decisively bearish.

• After a tumultuous start and on the eve of the Fed’s rate cut decision, Bitcoin has recovered, closing the month with its best September performance in history. The bears can’t say they weren’t warned.

• The arrival of a liquidity cascade, following China's macroeconomic stimulus and the potential FTX repayments to its users—after nearly two years since its collapse—brings renewed optimism to crypto investor sentiment.
  

• Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain in neutral territory, demonstrating stability and strength, while the Risk Index has stayed stable at zero. This, combined with the price momentum turning bullish, sets the stage for Bitcoin to consolidate as Altcoins break away from its reference and establish their own patterns, signaling a regime shift toward Altcoins.

• Despite a favorable setup and the possibility that everything could explode at any moment, this is not a market for the impatient. Let’s look at the Swissblock indicators to fuel patience from a fundamental perspective.

  

  Speedometers indicating the current state of BTC. The full dot represents the current reading and the white dot represents one week ago.

Price Momentum has Turned Positive.

• In the previous analysis, we mentioned that the arrival into the positive quadrant was imminent and that Bitcoin would need to maintain its upward trajectory to sustain the bullish momentum. The retest of immediate support, along with the corresponding liquidity inflow into Bitcoin, should provide enough vitality to prevent any deterioration in momentum. For now, seeing Bitcoin's impulses bear fruit is a very positive sign.

  

  YTD time series of the Bitcoin Price Momentum.

Back to Moderate Greed.

• We’ve entered into the greed zone in a gradual manner, a sentiment that has been reflected primarily in Altcoins.