Escaping the wedge?
Compass 170
In our latest analysis, we highlighted this target as an immediate action point:
The $94K–$95K zone remains a highly attractive target, as it sits at the midpoint of the wick on the daily timeframe.
As we can see, the price has reached this zone but has barely moved from it. This prolonged flat price action increases the likelihood of a structural break—but the big question is, in which direction will it move? Join us as we uncover the answer.
A Moment of Truth.
The past few days have been a tough test for the crypto ecosystem—and not just due to Bitcoin’s stagnant price action or the harsh correction in altcoins. There’s a growing sense of moral defeat following the $LIBRA rug pull scandal, a memecoin "promoted" by Argentina’s President Javier Milei in an X post, which he later deleted. The fallout? 86% of LIBRA traders have realized losses exceeding $1K, with total losses surpassing $250 million.
This controversial and questionable incident, reminiscent of the $TRUMP token launch, has triggered a public relations crisis for the broader crypto ecosystem.
We must not forget that a large segment of the public is unfamiliar with Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem. For many, Bitcoin and crypto are synonymous—a perception that, while partially true (since Bitcoin was the catalyst for everything crypto-related), does not account for the fact that the crypto industry has developed its own narratives. However, despite their conceptual independence, crypto assets remain highly correlated and sensitive to Bitcoin's movements, as its dominance reinforces its hegemony.
Because of this Bitcoin-crypto association, we are now witnessing a defining opportunity: the conceptual separation of Bitcoin from the broader crypto ecosystem. While Bitcoin is increasingly discussed in terms of adoption as a store of value, a treasury asset, and even an inflation hedge, the crypto ecosystem—despite hosting technologically relevant blockchain projects—is often represented by memecoins and scam-ridden shitcoins. These assets, fueled by speculative gambling instincts (cue pump & dump schemes), tend to generate more noise than actual innovation.
This crisis could ultimately benefit Bitcoin in the long run by reinforcing its conceptual distinction from the broader crypto industry, which currently faces a crisis of identity.
A Flat Price Pattern, False Breakouts: Caution is Warranted.
Bitcoin’s price momentum has timidly moved out of the bearish zone and has discreetly entered the bullish zone, but without much fanfare. This suggests that the price lacks the necessary momentum to turn decisively bullish, despite having remained sideways over the past 10 days.
We see this reflected in the Risk Index, which is signaling an environment where the price structure is beginning to show weakness. The increase in risk suggests nothing other than growing bearish pressure, which could lead to a breakdown of the last support level before a retest of $92K.
Certainly, the impulse from $93.5K has helped alleviate some of this pressure, and we can see that risk has slightly receded. However,
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