Dear Subscribers,
As we approach the end of the year, bitcoin has been able to sustain the gains over the $40k level as FED had maintained the rates and excitement remains for the potential ETF.
In this Uncharted:
We analyze how bitcoin price is attempting a fresh increase above the $42.2k level. Bitcoin could surge once it clears the $43.35k resistance zone in the near term.
We expand thsi week’s macro releases, FED’s meeting and Friday’s comments from a policy maker dampened recent optimism about potential rate cuts next year.
We outline the potential of Layer 1 coins, how they have been outperforming bitcoin and the reason behind. Don’t miss the opportunity before altcoin season begins.
Let’s dive in!
🇨🇭 Join our Swissblock Telegram Group! Get daily updates, in-house content, and technical analysis on crypto & macroeconomics. Tap into a hub of knowledge and insights. Stay ahead with Swissblock. Sign up now! 🚀
State of the System
First things first, let’s recap where we were on the 1st of December in the last Uncharted:
“During the Wednesday morning the bitcoin price reached its highest level since 2023. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up about 10% in November, making it the first green 11th month of the year since 2020. Bitcoin closed November at $38.8k for the first time since May 2022 the morning on Friday, following a strong multi-month surge fuelled by rising institutional demand.”
Bitcoin and the overall market experienced a notable surge on Thursday following a surprisingly strong signal from Federal Reserve officials indicating potential interest-rate cuts in the coming year. The price of Bitcoin, in particular, saw a 4.1% increase over the last 24 hours, reaching $42.869k, although it remains slightly below its recent peak of $44k.
All indications are that bitcoin still has some steam left in it before the end of the year; we remain in the bullish quadrant, reaffirming our outlook.
The sentiment for bitcoin returning to sub $25k levels isn't completely gone, but it is most certainly fading as bid liquidity is increasing above $40k. In the context of Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent comments, there are bullish signals for bitcoin, but caution is advised against succumbing to an overly optimistic "Up-Only" narrative. Resistance is notably accumulating around the $45k mark.
Observations since Sunday's close reveal significant liquidity movements within the order book, potentially driven by whales capitalizing on FOMO and fear, uncertainty, and FUD in anticipation of Chair Powell's press conference. Removing a significant wall at $38k is considered a protective measure, possibly aimed at mitigating potential market plunges associated with Powell's statements.
Bitcoin is presently in a phase of consolidating its gains, encountering resistance around the $43.35K mark. A successful close above this resistance level has the potential to initiate a sustained upward movement. The immediate hurdles to overcome are $43.3K, with more substantial resistance at $44.2k and a critical psychological level of $45k. If Bitcoin breaches the $45k threshold, it could pave the way for a test of $46.5k. The environment is favourable as the Risk Signal has not moved from 0 in the past month since the price rally.
Altcoins demonstrate resilience and strength in the market, with ETH and bitcoin maintaining solid levels at $42.3k and $2250, respectively, although slightly below recent peaks. Notably, Layer 1 (L1) altcoins such as SOL, AVAX, and INJ are hovering near their year-to-date highs, indicating robust performance. The Altcoin Signal is back in altcoin territory after a momentary dip.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Swissblock Insights to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.