Will we have an ATH Before the Halving?

Crypto Compass 105

“Success is not final; failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.” - Winston S. Churchill

• The initial anticipation for BTC to revisit the all-time high for a potential second entry into short modes was met with disappointment as distribution at supply led to a 10% markdown. Despite the setback, the current support level around $65k is holding strong, with key support levels identified at the $62k region and $65k.

• The analysis suggests a similarity to patterns observed before the significant rise in BTC’s price during late 2020, indicating the potential for a local bottom formation around current levels before initiating the next rally upward.

Figure 1: BTC’s Traded Volume.

• The US dollar extended its decline against major currencies driven by disappointing services sector data, which can be taken as an opportunity for BTC as correlation remains negative. This trend was fueled by concerns about the potential reduction in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

• The subdued performance of the services industry provided some relief to investors, but the short-term outlook for the US dollar remains bearish. We are anticipating further clarity on the Fed's monetary policy stance, particularly regarding the expected number of rate cuts in 2024, which is likely to influence the dollar's direction in the near term.

Figure 2: BTC’s Correlation with Most Popular Indexes.

• On the daily chart, BTC exhibits a complex interplay of alternating bullish and bearish patterns, suggesting a longer phase of consolidation. Extensive price swings and significant volatility reflect the prevailing uncertainty in the market, although the last significant drop implies a bearish sentiment.