Why is Everyone Bearish?

Aug 16, 2023

∙ Paid

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry, or watching grass grow.” - Paul Samuelson

It’s pretty clear that this year’s significant moves (extended moves) have come from the dynamics in the DXY and US10Y, which are an effect of the macro environment. BTC is feeling heavy all of a sudden, yet the market ignores that we’ve been testing the $29k level since July 26th. What’s changed? ETF-related news has faded and renewed strength in the DXY and rates as a reflection of the macro dynamics.
We believe this turmoil is short-term. The DXY and rates will begin to top out in the coming week (2 weeks tops) and the Bitcoin Risk Signal (65) should drop.

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