What Trump Giveth, Trump Taketh.

Compass 172

In our last analysis, we focused more on fundamentals than price action:

If Bitcoin drops to $92K or nearby liquidity zones, we need to see an improvement in the BFI to confirm the strength of any potential recovery. Otherwise, any bounce could be driven purely by momentum or futures traders piling in, rather than genuine market demand.

The needed improvement in the Bitcoin Fundamental Index didn’t happen, as it remains in neutral territory. Instead, we saw a fundamental degradation alongside the price until Bitcoin finally bottomed at $78K.

With key support levels lost, what comes next for Bitcoin?

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The Threat of Tariffs: The Sword of Damocles

• Bitcoin has collapsed from its accumulation range and has been unable to reclaim it, failing to secure daily closes above the 90-92K zone. The climate of uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Trump’s tariffs, combined with extreme sensitivity to index performance, has created a volatile environment where dips are bought without conviction, and rallies are sold off in a frenzy.

• The looming threat of U.S. tariff implementation is the Sword of Damocles that Trump is swinging over the global economy. It’s no longer about Canada, Mexico, China, or the EU—it’s a broader question: what has a greater negative impact, the mere threat or the actual implementation? Markets are pricing in something that could have a devastating effect on valuations, effectively erasing the momentum we saw with the "Trump Pump."

• This puts Bitcoin at the forefront, moving ahead of all other markets, and setting the pace for what comes next. On the surface, Trump's executive order to establish the first Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a positive signal, but since it's already priced in, it turns into a classic "sell the news" event.

• We’re seeing signs of a recovery and the early stages of a bullish rebound, but the key lies in whether market pressures fully price in the impact of Trump’s policies and stabilize. Only then can we expect a relief rally, including for Bitcoin.

  Let’s see how everything is taking shape.

Speedometers indicating the current state of BTC. The full dot represents the current reading and the white dot represents one week ago.

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What Trump Giveth, Trump Taketh.

• One of the key questions before Bitcoin broke below the lower boundary of its accumulation range was whether, during its downward move, it would close the CME gap formed after the weekend pump that followed Trump’s victory.

• CME gaps occur when Bitcoin’s price moves sharply up or down over a weekend. They exist because CME Bitcoin futures don’t trade on weekends, so when the market reopens on Sunday at 23:00 UTC, a price gap appears on the chart.

• It’s not a strict rule, but most gaps—whether fully or partially—tend to get filled eventually. This is common in traditional finance (TradFi), where equities, indices, and futures frequently open with gaps due to restricted trading hours. In crypto, which operates 24/7, gaps technically don’t exist in spot markets, but the CME gap phenomenon still plays out as Bitcoin often moves to "fill" these gaps.

• During its sharp downtrend, Bitcoin partially closed the gap that had been open since November. More notably, last weekend created an enormous gap between