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Volatility Looms
Compass

Volatility Looms

Crypto Compass 62

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Swissblock Insights
Oct 09, 2023
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Volatility Looms
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"The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." – Nelson Mandela

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  • Going sideways below $28K stymies the BTC October express rise, with the first week for BTC price proving Dickensian. Following an almost 4% increase on October 1st, prices moved slightly due to overhead supply below the $28K barrier.

  • Macroeconomic triggers are also plentiful, with the September print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely in the coming days. Following the release of unexpected employment figures last week, the Federal Reserve will pay special attention to the readout.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Risk Signal is a proprietary signal that gauges the amount of risk of a major drawdown in Bitcoin price.
  • As the bullish reversal remains in the above $27K range, the chances of a good reversal improve. The 4-hour BTC chart forms a triangle with a multi-contact support trendline, indicating the possibility of an uptrend. Furthermore, the 50-day EMA acts as a buffer to limit the range of bearish cycles.

  • With such optimistic indicators in play, the chances of an upside breakout sparking a market-wide recovery improve. With most of October being positive for Bitcoin, the likelihood of the BTC price climbing is palpable.

Figure 2: Bitcoin’s Price Evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.

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