Volatile Weekend Ahead of BTC Halving

Crypto Compass 107

"If you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change." - Wayne Dyer

• BTC faced considerable pressure amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to volatility in the broader stock market. Despite the recovery in the stock market, BTC’s trading volume has seen a decline, indicating a bearish sentiment.

• However, BTC dominance has surged to its highest level in three years. Price has also rebounded to surpass $66k, buoyed by anticipation surrounding the potential launch of BTC and ETH ETFs in Hong Kong, which could unlock significant demand estimated at $25 billion.

Figure 1: BTC Price with On-chain Volume and Trading Volume.

• On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC has shown a rapid rebound from the crucial $60k support zone, signalling resilience in the face of recent market pressures. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index is nearing the 50% level, suggesting a potential shift towards bullish momentum.

• If the bullish momentum persists, BTC may retest and potentially surpass the $68k level, aiming for a rally towards the all-time high at $75k and beyond. This scenario reflects renewed optimism. However, a breakdown below the $60k could lead to a sharp decline in BTC’s price and halting the ongoing bull market.

Figure 2: BTC's 4 hour price evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.

• BTC recently tested previous lows, experienced a bounce, but remains within its established trading range after seeing a significant decreases in open interest. We are at a significant spot premium: minimal open interest, and reset funding rates create conditions conducive to a potential bullish pump in the near term.