02 February 2022
Welcome to Uncharted 8!
To understand where we currently stand, we need to look at things from a macro perspective. We are at the crossroads where larger elements in the global geo/political landscape are intersecting and influencing the economic outlook into the future. It is important to understand how digital assets are positioned in that larger financial asset landscape, while still keeping a close eye on how innovation and inefficiencies are driving the crypto space as a whole.
In this edition of Uncharted, we will put the last major corrections into perspective, to have a better understanding of what the major drivers have been in the past, and how those drivers have evolved. We will then jump specifically into this current cycle, understanding how the types of players and the current macroeconomic landscape are redefining the position bitcoin and other digital assets have in a portfolio, as we move away from pure retail and early speculation in early 2018, to having mutual funds, hedge funds, Venture Capital and larger corporations claiming their stake in the space. We then end with a general overview of where we see the medium to long-term trend of the crypto space in terms of its price trajectory.
Let’s jump right in!
How to Compare Apples to Oranges
We kick off by identifying the significant events that have signalled a bottoming of bitcoin’s market price. When looking at the RSI on a daily resolution, it is possible to identify six major oversold periods - the end of the last bull cycle in 2018, the major corrections in 2019, the global pandemic crash of March 2020, the following crash on May 11th, 2021 and the most recent correction beginning of 2022.
Bitcoin Oversold on Six Occasions
For the sake of this Uncharted, we will focus on the four largest oversold periods that had a significant impact on both bitcoin's and ethereum’s market structure.