Dear subscribers,
In this version of Uncharted: Distilled we deep dive into bitcoin’s price structure and analyze whether the $17-$20k is the new support level and bottom. All in the context of subsiding selling pressure in an intense macroeconomic environment.
Let’s dig in!
Summary
Uncharted #18 kicks off from last Saturday’s $17,708 low and progresses to an in-depth analysis of the momentous level. From strong support indicators and trend reversal metrics to the incoming external factors pressuring bitcoin’s price action.
Bitcoin is trading below the 200-week moving average ($22k) in an extreme oversold condition, suggesting a potential bottom.
Selling pressure subsided as investors stopped materializing losses causing the delta between unrealized and realized losses to revert.
The relationship between unrealized profits and losses showed that investors capitulated as the price broke below $27k.
Bitcoin’s mid-term trading channel widened as the Fed’s course of action is susceptible to incoming data.
Economic conditions suggested that there is room for further expeditious rate hikes that could strain bitcoin’s price action.
The market expects the Fed to dissuade rate hikes after the summer, paving the way for a similar correlation regime as in 2018-2019.
Bitcoin’s current trading channel ($17-$20k) has proved to be a hefty traded volume area with mainstream attention.
We expect an aggressive move looming given the 51% increase in the futures-to-spot volume ratio and bitcoin’s historical reaction.
If the current support level holds, bitcoin could edge towards $29-$32k. On the other hand, the worst-case scenario could floor the price to the $9-$13k range.