Key Takeaways
Bitcoin confirms $25.7k as hard bottom going into week 20.
Bears are becoming exhausted the longer we trade over $26.8k, yet bulls have work to do to turn things around.
Our impulse signal framework can be used as a signal to go full into BTC and to time the rotation to alts.
Bitcoin has bounced over 6% since the $25.7k bottom Friday. This marks the structure’s base, clearing the way for $35k in the mid-term.
The challenge is holding above $27.5k and attempting to break over $28k. Consolidation is expected shortly until demand picks up (spot CVD trending up). It seems that this move has been mainly perp-driven and by shorts covering.
From a risk perspective, we are in a similar environment to late mid-2020 preceding the bull run. Notice the structure of the Bitcoin Risk Signal toward September 2020, when the signal reverted and consolidated as bitcoin gained strength for the aggressive move up.
The longer bitcoin holds above $26.8k, the faster the Bitcoin Risk Signal will drop as fewer investors panic sell.
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