The Waiting Game

Crypto Compass 35

“Of all the hardships a person had to face, none was more punishing than the simple act of waiting.” - Khaled Hosseini

• Bitcoin price has started the new week by defending support at $30k. While there have been numerous efforts to trend higher in recent weeks, falling exchange volumes may be denying bulls the energy needed to sustain these northbound price advances. The RSI indicator has remained relatively flat, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers with no clear dominance or a lack of momentum.

• The first step for potential income seekers would be entering at $29.9k or close to $30k; the $31.2k level is actionable if we break upwards and retest as support, as it would trigger a bullish momentum. If not, it becomes a sell level.

Figure 1: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the price momentum of a stock or other security. The basic idea behind the RSI is to measure how quickly traders are bidding the price of the security up or down. The RSI plots this result on a scale of 0 to 100.

• Bitcoin price has been consolidating between $29.6k and $31.4k for the past 18 days, creating anticipation for a significant breakout. The Entity-Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator has also been in a range of optimism-anxiety; the market is optimistic about further upside, but frustration is picking up.

• As more investors are sitting at a profit, the probability of an abrupt price fall (below $29k) is relatively low, as there is no reason for panic selling. Bitcoin whales and even the smaller addresses have taken the opportunity to accumulate.

Figure 2: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss, discarding transactions between addresses of the same entity.