The Six-Figure Bitcoin.
Compass 148
Let’s review our weekly playbook from last Monday’s Compass (BTC was at $90K, key resistance at $91.7K):
[…] we lean toward the bullish scenario, where Bitcoin breaks resistance and heads toward the $100K zone, a mark that will not yet be reached due to profit-taking. This move would likely attract more bulls, setting the stage for greater distribution of sell orders given the excessively overextended bullish sentiment and euphoric optimism.
As we can see on the 1-hour timeframe, the structure played out perfectly.
Now the weekend has arrived and $100K looks so close, as we hover above the $98.5K mark. Let’s dive in.
Good Bye, Gary.
This week, Bitcoin has given us plenty of reasons to be bullish, and no matter how cautious we want to be with a contrarian position, the good news keeps piling up. The environment surrounding Bitcoin couldn’t be more promising, both for enthusiasts and skeptics alike.
On one hand, the confirmation that Gary Gensler will resign on Trump’s inauguration day signals the end of a restrictive era in crypto regulation. The candidates being considered to succeed him as SEC Chair are generating even more enthusiasm.
There’s been much speculation about whether there will be a "crypto czar" working closely with the White House. All signs suggest this will happen, with potential candidates already being discussed for this position, which would serve as a political bridge between the government and the crypto industry.
Additionally, the idea that the next administration will acquire Bitcoin for a strategic reserve is gaining traction—not just in substance but in structure. Trump has proposed a Crypto Advisory Council to oversee not only the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve but also to guide the administration in crafting crypto policies.
Finally, Charles Schwab, one of the financial services giants, has expressed its intention to invest in Bitcoin once the regulatory framework clears the path for such investments.
Meanwhile, we remain in a Bitcoin Season, with bullish momentum in full swing, zero risk, and rock-solid fundamentals firmly established. Let’s take a closer look at what has changed in the bullish landscape and what lies ahead for the next phase.
Euphoric Sentiment.
In the previous analysis, we mentioned the importance of maintaining a contrarian thesis to avoid falling into excessive euphoria. However, as noted in the introduction, the reasons for optimism have continued to pile up. At the same time, sentiment is reaching yearly highs, prompting us to question how long this extreme greed can last.
As we can see, extreme greed has persisted throughout the week as Bitcoin steadily climbed its way to the brink of $100K. While such extreme sentiment is typically a warning sign of an imminent correction—or at least a call for caution—there are reasons to believe that this sentiment may begin to moderate, easing the pressure on traders seeking profits at this price range.
A Surge of Retail Activity and Gradual Profit-Taking.
Looking at the data, short-term holders are entering the market in large numbers, while long-term holders continue to take profits. Additionally, there’s a net outflow of BTC from exchanges, while whales and miners
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