Key Takeaways
Risk assets have made a comeback despite the headwinds of a stronger DXY and climbing rates.
BTC has finally broken the descending wedge and $30k is around the corner.
When will BTC catch up to the tech-driven rally? Ties are closer to the value of bonds…
The economy is not in a recession and the Fed is near the end of its hiking cycle. We are entering the Goldilocks zone.
Quick reads:
s dive into Bitcoin touches $28,000 as whales, long-term holders ramp up accumulation and from a look into Bitcoin’s Bitcoin Gearing Up For Another Leg Up?Bitcoin has finally broken the descending wedge. A more significant move is coming: RSI shows positive divergence and the MACD triggered a bullish crossover. Can we finally shake off the mid-April downtrend caused by higher rates and the DXY?
The mid-term view remains with BTC over $30k (potentially between $35 - $45k) into the Summer. However, short-term the odds of retesting the $26.7k breakout level (neckline) are in play.
All eyes remain on the DXY’s upward trend developing in an ABC structure, which has been the main source of headwinds for BTC and other risk assets. We believe that the move could extend toward 106 (or even 107) in view of the pricing of a subsequent 25bps hike in June and a stronger-than-expected economy.
The 106 area is pivotal. We expect it to be the turning point for risk assets. The DXY will decline, sharply, towards the 91-93 area after hitting that level. The decline should unfold in 5 waves likely into late 2023. This move should be very supportive of risk assets and particularly bitcoin.
Tech is up, the economy is not in a recession (it’s stronger than expected), financial tightening is coming to an end, inflation is cooling, and the Fed is near the end of its hiking cycle. We are entering the Goldilocks zone for equities and risk assets (BTC).
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