The Moment of Truth

Crypto Compass 85

This is unprecedented; having a real race right out of the gate in that context is going to be ... dramatic and exciting." - Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi

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• Despite the rough start to the new year, the Fear & Greed Index is still firmly in 'Greed' territory; the greed level from December is still well maintained and it didn’t get off the roof yet. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a FOMO warning to investors amid speculation of spot BTC ETFs getting approval, causing temporary turbulence in the market.

• BTC prices are currently experiencing a short-term retreat with a 1% dip, trading at $43.577k. The $44K to $45K zone has been a significant resistance level for the past month. A positive outcome from the SEC regarding spot BTC ETF approvals this week could potentially lead to a higher BTC price.

Figure 1: Measure of the overall sentiment of the crypto market.

• Loose monetary policy out of the Federal Reserve will continue to help this market, assuming that's exactly what happens. If we do not get them, that will probably be unpleasant for BTC, but it looks like it's full steam ahead right now.

• We expect a certain amount of volatility, but ultimately, this is a scenario in which we still have to look in one direction, at least as things stand right now. In that environment, we should continue to see plenty of momentum, especially if we start to see the US dollar lose strength again, as more often than not, BTC is priced in US dollars.

Figure 2: BTC and DXY’s Price Evolution.