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The Fine Line of BTC
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The Fine Line of BTC

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Swissblock Insights
Oct 13, 2023
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The Fine Line of BTC
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“Resilience is the ability to attack while running away.” — Wes Fessler

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  • BTC was trading at a high until a few days ago, but its inability to break beyond the $28K barrier became a negative motivator for future price fluctuations. As a result, BTC fell below $27k for the first time in October, pushing the risk signal into the high-risk zone.

  • Significant change is likely once a catalyst occurs, such as a halving or spot ETFs launch. With most altcoins trading in the red, the market cap disparity between large caps and altcoins has only grown.

Figure 1:
  • Despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate strategy, consumer price index (CPI) statistics released today showed higher-than-expected inflation numbers, with a yearly increase of 3.7% overall, or 4.1%, when food and energy costs were excluded.

  • This does not bode well for risk assets because it implies that interest rates will either remain higher or rise for longer, and BTC is a risk asset. Because BTC and ETH have underperformed on the upside, their beta is now smaller on the downside.

Figure 2: CPI Data evolution.

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