The Fake News Effect

Crypto Compass 86

“When fake news is repeated, it becomes difficult for the public to discern what's real”. - Jimmy Gomez

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• BTC underwent a notable price spike followed by an immediate retracement due to a false update from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) account. After shooting all the way to $48k on Tuesday, the BTC price is once again settling at $45k.

• The SEC's spread of fake news had a twofold effect. First, it demonstrated to the majority of investors that the ETF's influence on BTC was small. Second, it depleted the market's already fragile momentum, forcing many investors to initiate deleveraging operations and reduce positions, opting for an early "sell the news" strategy.

Figure 1: BTC’s Price Momentum

• The $47.5k level remains a significant barrier for BTC, presenting a potential challenge to break above. However, if successfully surpassed, the $50k level could become the next target.

• While pullbacks may find support at the 20-day EMA and the $40k level, the overall sentiment favours a "buy on the dips" strategy. Anticipation of a BTC ETF has generated excitement, but a "sell the news" scenario might unfold once the ETF is officially announced. Longer-term prospects remain bullish, and any significant move in the US dollar could impact BTC’s performance.

Figure 2: BTC's price evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.