The $72k Threshold

Crypto Compass 104

Dear Subscribers, 

As we get back from Easter break, this week we will not have our wednesday’s article but a compass; we will come back as usual next week.

Enjoy!

“Well done is better than well said.” - Benjamin Franklin

• BTC’s price action appears to be consolidating as it moves back and forth, indicating a slowdown in the rush to enter the market. While the previous rapid gains may not be replicated in the near future, the overall trend remains bullish.

• Significant support is anticipated around the $60k level, with potential buying interest if the market pulls back to this level. A consolidation phase between $60k and $75k is possible, with the 50-day EMA coinciding with the $60k support level, potentially adding further significance to this area.

Figure 1: BTC Momentum.

• Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell reiterated his expectation that inflation would gradually decline toward the central bank's target of 2 percent, despite the latest data showing a slightly higher inflation rate of 2.5 percent in February, up from 2.4 percent in January. Powell acknowledged that the path towards the 2 percent target might encounter occasional bumps, as indicated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis report and other recent data.

• Despite the acknowledgment of potential challenges, the Fed's latest projections still suggest a plan to lower rates by 0.75 percentage points this year, reflecting a downward revision from the previous high of 5.25-5.5 percent. Powell's remarks underscore the central bank's cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments amid evolving economic conditions and inflation.

Figure 2: Probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data.

• The 4-hour chart analysis reveals significant demand around the critical $62k support level for BTC, leading to a notable price surge aimed at challenging the $72k resistance level in anticipation of establishing a new all-time high before the halving event.