Six Figures Needed
Compass 160
In the weekly playbook, we considered the following:
Notice how the sudden price drop was driven by a strong spot sell (significant compared to the low-volume spot buying). It's also noteworthy that this spot sell was smaller than during the previous revisit to $92K. Are the bears running out of ammunition?
Now we see that the bears have given up some ground as the price rebounds toward the $97.2K-$98.5K zone. Are the bears completely out of the game? Let’s dive in.
Ride the Lightning.
A new year begins with the caution of someone approaching calm waters, aware they might turn turbulent, clouded by what lies beneath the serene surface: In 2020, when an imminent recession was anticipated, the opposite occurred—a massive quantitative easing in response to the economic constraints caused by COVID-19.
Now, many economic indicators point to a recession, but for investors, this feels like a "boy who cried wolf" scenario. Let’s not forget that the economy and financial markets currently are uncorrelated; the economy may flash warnings while indices, equities, and risk assets keep climbing, ignoring these signals.
This may continue—but for how long? In our view, the "blow-off top" phase has begun. As this unfolds, we must ride the wave, gradually seeking an exit once the explosive move is over. For now, Ride the Lightning.
A Matter of Feeling.
The last two weeks of the year, marked by fewer participants and lower volumes, allowed sentiment to reset to neutral territory. This sets a good foundation for gradual improvement in the coming weeks, accompanying a price recovery.
Looking at Bitcoin from a sentiment perspective, and considering the post-halving bull market setup, sentiment has spent more time in neutral territory than in zones of greed—or even fear. Bitcoin has consolidated for so long that sentiment has remained restrained, with only two distinct phases of greed and euphoria: Q1 with the initial rally and Q4 during the "Trump Pump."
Beyond these phases, we haven’t yet experienced the euphoric stage where prices skyrocket parabolically, and altcoins steal the spotlight with 2x, 5x, or even 10x gains. This phase might still be brewing—a movement that could push sentiment to irrational extremes, signaling a market peak.
In the short term, however, sentiment looks favorable for a sustainable bull run, potentially driving prices above $100K—without losing composure in the process.
Price Momentum Loses Steam, but Price Recovers.
As Bitcoin pumps and revisits the $97.2K-$98.5K zone, price momentum appears slightly bearish. Why?
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