Ready, Set, When?

Uncharted 39

Dear subscribers,

In this Uncharted:

• We analyze the current position and market sentiment of bitcoin, detailing its consolidation range and the potential for future movement in the market. Delve further to understand our short-term outlook and the current dynamics in play.

• We explore the potential impacts of external factors such as the US debt ceiling negotiations, as well as those of moves in the DXY and US treasury rates on the cryptocurrency market.

• We examine the best strategy for this slow-bleeding environment, where moves are going to be fast and aggressive if BTC breaks out. The strategy can also profit from a ranging bitcoin.

Also, check out:

Ecoinometrics

‘ and

The Bitcoin Layer

‘s deep dives into the next bitcoin halving, a topic whose relevance should not be underestimated for the next 12 months.

Much more below, so let’s dig in!

---

Courtesy of Substack’s new AI feature

---

State of the System

Let’s pick up at our last Uncharted, whose first line read: “Bitcoin consolidates within the $27k-$29.5k range, with potential bullish movements toward $35k, pending liquidity and market catalysts.”  A consolidation range between $27k and $29k was expected. However, as our paying subscribers will have noticed further down, our short-term outlook was too optimistic: We thought today’s Uncharted would be written from a higher price point, even if volatility remained elevated. As of writing, we are at $26.5k towards the bottom of the range, while on May 5th we closed at $29.5k. Below, in the State of the System, you can see that this price action also terminated bitcoin’s stay in the bullish quadrant, shifting into the bearish counterpart in week 20. 

Figure 1

Before we analyze the whys behind this price action, let’s make one thing clear: We see the range (figure 2) in the last 2 weeks as merely a delay of the -