Reaching for the Sky

Crypto Compass 78

“The person who turns over the most rocks wins the game.” - Peter Lynch

🇨🇭 Join our Swissblock Telegram Group! Get daily updates, in-house content, and technical analysis on crypto & macroeconomics. Tap into a hub of knowledge and insights. Stay ahead with Swissblock. Sign up now! 🚀

• BTC is now trading at $44k as bulls gain control of the market, a significant increase from the $17k it was trading at in the beginning of 2023 following the largest sell-off in the sector's history, which was sparked by the collapse of the Terra LUNA cryptocurrency last November.

• Both global and micro elements are currently in alignment. The Fed has become more dovish, the supply of BTC appears to be extremely limited before the halving, and the anticipation of the possibility of both a controversial US presidential election and the adoption of a spot BTC ETF next year.

Figure 1: BTC’s Regime Shift.

• BTC started the day with a slight dip but quickly gained momentum, closing on December 5th at a yearly peak, surging nearly 4% to reach over $44k—a level not seen in over a year. The new trading day began with a slight decline, down over 1% to around $43.5k.

• Despite this dip, a strong bullish trend persisted, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 75, firmly in the oversold zone. The market did not linger here in previous times, and we should look for hints of turning points not earlier than the $46k to $47k area, where there was a reversal in March last year and temporary support in 2021.

Figure 2: BTC’s Price Evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.