Ranges Are Meant to Be Broken

Uncharted Lite 08

“Great things are done by a series of small things brought together.” ― Vincent Van Gogh

• The mid-term outlook remains in play, with upside potential outweighing the shaky short-term. The Risk signal is at 0 as there is less selling pressure, and altcoins continue to react to the BTC-driven market.

• We expect the price to continue ranging until we see a change in structure in the short-term framework. Bullish momentum is fading but has not turned bearish. The longer we hold at these levels, the less pronounced the short-term risk gets.

Figure 1: Indexes for this week’s outlook.

• Better-than-expected NFPs (coincident economic indicator) suggests that the economy is robust and a recession is at least 9-12 months out. Furthermore, the cross-asset framework suggests that more pressure will ease off BTC as the DXY is moving sideways and rates are topping out.

• This provides further leg room for BTC and alts to move higher, as there will be an incentive for risk-on allocation. More capital can flow and more major catalysts can drive the price; the countdown to Fed's interest rate announcement in July is starting.

Figure 2: The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states of the US.