Play the Long Game

Crypto Compass 93

"Right now Bitcoin feels like the internet before the browser" – Wences Casares, CEO of Xapo Bank

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• BTC is holding steady at $43k. Despite attempts to push the price lower at the beginning of Monday's trading session, strong support was observed around $42.2k, leading to a rebound in the BTCUSD pair. This support level has proven resilient against selling pressure, bringing the price back to the $43k range.

• In traditional financial markets, both the dollar and equity indices are experiencing simultaneous gains, but overall risk appetite is described as subdued. Exclusive drivers for the crypto market, such as BTC ETFs, have already played out, leaving players waiting for the next significant signal.

Figure 1: Market’s sentiment through time.

• Short-term support for BTC is anticipated at the $42k level, with a potential downside target of $40k if the $42k support is breached. Closely monitor changes in U.S. interest rates, as rising rates could pose challenges for BTC. The historically attractive aspect of BTC, driven by monetary policy and money printing, may face headwinds if the Federal Reserve adopts a tighter stance.

• Despite short-term concerns, the longer-term outlook remains bullish, with a target of reaching not only the $48k level but also the $50k level. The negative correlation between BTC and interest rates is highlighted, with the bond market indicating expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. If these expectations materialize, it could pave the way for BTC to continue its upward trajectory, especially with renewed FOMO in the market.

Figure 2: BTC's price evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.