Opportunity Cost Suggests it’s Time to go All In

Crypto Compass 27

Key Takeaways:

• Charged week ahead with internal and external catalysts coming our way. It’s time to be safe, but aggressive, the downside is capped.

• There is a risk of a short-term dip as intraday volatility should pick up, but the mid-term outlook is stronger than ever. The opportunity cost of not holding BTC exceeds the downside risk.

• BTC is holding steady despite the abrupt selloff in alts. This is a great opportunity to get ahead of the curve and skip ETH this week.

Reads we recommend: read

Nik Bhatia

'Binance On The Brink, Fresh US Debt Is Coming, Fed Pause Likely' and

CryptoCon

'The US Government Declares War on Crypto'.

• The pressure is on. It’s a make-it-or-break-it type of week, from XRP’s June 13th “resolution” date to CPI, FOMC, and initial jobless claims. The market feels weak; there is fear on one side of the coin, while others hope this week will get the ball rolling. It’s a great opportunity to buy; we are fairly close to the bottom (short, mid, and long-term) range. The downside is capped.

• We expect intraday volatility to pick up this week as the market positions ahead of the catalysts. However, realized volatility is fairly low, so prepare for a chop between $25k and $26.7k. There are no signs of continuation as long as we don’t break out of this channel.

• The risk of a pronounced drop is relatively high (Bitcoin Risk Signal at 50), but it’s not imminent. The upside exceeds the downside at this point. We see a greater chance of breaking the $26.7k: likely, the Fed “skips” (aka pauses), XRP is on the brink of a transcendental win, and the market is oversold.

• Caution is advised: we could see another dip in the short term as the market places bets around the catalysts. Those who are not hopeful are afraid, which could trigger another panic sale. Sit tight if you’re buying.