No Pain, No Gain

Crypto Compass 17

Key Takeaways

• $27k holding without clear signs of follow-through to $26k.

• Bitcoin Risk Signal suggests a strong move up brewing.

• The crypto market appears to be bottoming out, with over 80% near local support levels.

• Despite bitcoin's plunge to the $27k range, our mid-term outlook of $35k is intact.

• The Bitcoin Risk Signal is at 0, which in the past has led to strong rallies. Nevertheless, we could experience wicks to the lower end of $27k. Are we bottoming out?

• Short-term, bears have taken control of the narrative, yet the move is exhausting as funding rates turn positive and we approach greater buy walls near $27k. We expect some short-term chop if open interest does not ramp up.

• Why is a follow-through to $26k unlikely? Remember the significant line noted in Uncharted 38? Open interest didn't break above during the move down.