New ATH? A Look At The Catalysts

Compass 121

A week of price catalysts.

• Bitcoin has not only accustomed us to very active weekends but has also been responding positively to catalysts that could otherwise cause uncertainty and turbulence in market sentiment. Biden's dropout from the presidential race initially triggered a sell-off, momentarily threatening the weekly close above the Weekly 20 SMA at $65.5k. However, the bulls responded, driving the price to consolidate above this level and confirming the bullish setup we've been anticipating to launch an attack on the upper range, above $70k.

• The fundamental setup for Bitcoin and the crypto market presents even more intriguing bullish catalysts. What dates should we mark on the calendar for this week?

  • July 23: The confirmed launch of Ethereum ETFs is scheduled for this day, which could trigger buying pressure from institutional investors.

  • July 25-27: The Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, featuring the frontrunner in the U.S. presidential race, Donald Trump, who has now become a Bitcoin advocate. There have been rumors that Bitcoin could become a reserve asset under a hypothetical Trump presidency. An announcement of this magnitude could significantly impact the market and could be made during the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
    Additionally, there are rumors about the possible participation of Elon Musk, who recently changed his profile picture on X to include the laser eyes distinctive of Bitcoin maximalists. There is also speculation about the attendance of Michael Dell, who has expressed his fascination with Bitcoin.

  • July 26: Finally, on Friday, we will see the release of the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data, an indicator closely monitored by the Fed. This data helps us understand the changing environment in which the economy operates and could influence market sentiment and policy decisions.

• Gradually, our indicators shift from a bearish and risky perspective to a more neutral and bullish focus. Let's look at the indicators that support this view.

Figure 1: Speedometers indicating the current state of BTC.

State of the System.

• At the beginning of July, we anticipated that, historically, this is a bullish month for Bitcoin. Although the first 12 days of the month continued the bearish trend from June, with the first week showing the worst of the bears' dominance, we have seen a recovery in Bitcoin's price since breaking through the $60k level. This has resulted in a shift in directional momentum towards a more bullish quadrant.

• We foresee that by the end of this month, following a series of positive catalysts for Bitcoin's price, we will find ourselves in the bullish quadrant.

Figure 2: Swissblock’s State of the System.

BFI: Network fundamentals are on our side.

• June was marked by a negative close in Bitcoin's price, accompanied by weak on-chain fundamentals. The Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI) established a range but