Calm Before the Storm

Uncharted 59

Dear Subscribers, 

Bitcoin's ongoing price explosion has left its market in a deeply overbought state. Amid the volatility in crypto markets, bitcoin spent the week testing key support levels and reacting to macroeconomic data.

In this Uncharted:

• We analyze bitcoin’s volatile market amidst a backdrop of neutral oscillators and a mixed sentiment in moving averages. 

• We expand how all hope for the Fed's next meetings has been dashed by the Fed's decision to postpone rate decreases. It will be crucial to understand the Fed's potential perspective on the economy at its meeting in March.

• We go over Nvidia’s conference, the most important conference about AI, and its impact on the AI tokens.

Let’s dive in!

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State of the System

Let’s pick up where we left off last time in the Uncharted 59’s outlook:

“Bitcoin is currently finding support at a critical level around $50.8k after facing challenges in breaking through the liquidity-rich zone near $53k. This lack of strong demand has led to a period of price stagnation. However, with the crucial support holding firm, bulls may seize another opportunity to push for a breakout towards $58k, potentially marking the onset of a pre-halving rally. With 2024 shaping up to be the breakout year for bitcoin, expectations are set for for a new all-time high this season as we remain in the bullish quadrant.”

The market has experienced a significant decline during the week, indicating ongoing volatility. However, amidst this volatility, the $60k level appears to be offering significant support. This presents a potential buying opportunity for players.

If the market were to break below the $60k level, it could signal a further decline towards the $52k level. The recent parabolic rise, fueled by increased interest from ETFs, has slowed down, resulting in a more stable market environment. While this may differ from the rapid gains seen in previous months, it ultimately fosters a healthier market.

In this scenario, buying opportunities arise from dips in the market. The $52k level is identified as an ideal zone for longer-term buy-and-hold strategies. Although it remains uncertain whether the market will reach this level, it is considered an optimal entry point for many investors. Overall, buyers are expected to continue picking up dips in the market, maintaining ourselves in the bullish quadrant despite short-term fluctuations.

Figure 1: State of the System distinguishes between bullish and bearish regimes and transitions depending on bitcoin’s performance.

The market has experienced a significant decline this week, highlighting ongoing volatility. However, amidst this uncertainty, the $60k level is seen as offering significant support, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors.

Should the market break below the $60k level, there's a possibility of a further decline towards the $52k level. The recent parabolic rise, fueled in part by increased interest from ETFs, has tapered off, leading to a more stable market environment. While this may represent a departure from the rapid gains witnessed in previous months, it ultimately fosters a healthier market.

The $52k level is identified as an ideal zone for longer-term buy-and-hold strategies. Although it remains uncertain whether the market will reach this level, buyers are expected to continue capitalizing on dips in the market, maintaining a bullish sentiment despite short-term fluctuations.

Furthermore, the $52k level holds significant importance, perhaps even more so than other levels on the way down. On the other side, the $75k level has acted as a major resistance barrier and is likely to continue doing so. At this point, it serves more as a potential target for market participants.

Figure 2: Bitcoin’s Price in Context.

In every bull market, as bitcoin gains momentum, altcoins typically establish their support levels. However, once major players exit their bitcoin positions, they often inject liquidity into altcoins. Historically, when bitcoin breaks its previous cycle high, a significant altcoin rally tends to follow.

Currently, bitcoin is consolidating just below all-time highs. These sectors represent diverse areas within the cryptocurrency market and may present opportunities for investors as bitcoin's consolidation phase continues.

Figure 3: Altcoin Cycle Signal measures whether the market favours Bitcoin vs all Altcoins.

The alternating price movements observed between approximately $68.9k and $60.76k, followed by a partial recovery, underscore the resilience of the market and the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Bitcoin is currently situated in the re-accumulation zone, experiencing a lack of significant momentum. This phase of consolidation is typical as the Halving approaches in mid-April.

During this period, it's advisable to exercise caution with leveraged positions and adopt a patient approach with spot positions. This strategy aligns with the market's current state and allows for greater stability and flexibility in the on going fluctuations.

Figure 4: Bitcoin’s price momentum.

Bitcoin made an initial attempt to rally today but ultimately retraced its gains, showing signs of hesitation. This hesitation may reflect traders' perception of the market as potentially overbought, yet still offering considerable value on pullbacks.

Currently, the $60k level appears to be a significant support level that traders are closely monitoring, especially as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) approaches this area. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51, hovering around the midline, indicating a balanced market sentiment between buyers and sellers.