#BVL012: Stress test

Welcome to The Bitcoin Vector Lite #012!

In our last letter on Sept 3, we forecast a small “break in the clouds” could drive Bitcoin price higher short-term, but that this would be supported by tactical trading rather than investor conviction. This has just played out. At the time of writing, BTC sits at $114k, having hit our upside short liquidation targets of both ~$113.1k and ~$114.7k.

Where does Bitcoin go from here? The big wildcard is now Thursday’s CPI report. That could be a trigger, opening the door for new inflows, or confirming that this bounce lacks fuel.

Let’s dive into the models.