Buzzing September Closing

Uncharted Lite 13

“One does not leave a convivial party before closing time.” - Winston Churchill

• BTC price action was dragged upward by a challenge to month-to-date highs on Friday morning; BTC bulls could not seal a new peak for September. Price strength has returned to stabilize, with the index still up 4% from the week's low.

• The risk signal has reduced to 29, close to the low-risk area's upper limit. As BTC approaches a strong September ending, this prospective scenario could provide light on a possibly optimistic indicator as "Uptober" approaches.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Risk Signal is a proprietary signal that gauges the amount of risk of a major drawdown in Bitcoin price.

• The tension between the US House Republicans that was displayed during a closed-door meeting on Thursday significantly increased the risk of a US government shutdown less than two days before the deadline. On the long term, government shutdowns have no measurable effect on the performance of the markets, but on the short term, uncertainty leads to volatility.

• In past shutdowns and bank crisis, banks were hit hard while BTC, being seen as an alternative to traditional banking, performed well. Still, given BTC’s price volatility, it remains difficult to estimate the performance.

Figure 2: Price evolution of BTC and TradiFi stocks.