BTC's Echo to the Fed's Beat

Crypto Compass 68

“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.” - Warren Buffett

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• The market has calmed down as BTC continues to battle around its resistance level, with the coin consistently unable to break out of $35k and the bulls failing to hold the price. The price's sideways pattern indicates that we have entered a reaccumulating phase, and the price will likely make another jump soon.

• The market is bracing for turmoil as the next FOMC meeting is planned for today. Price may decline and retest its support level at $33k shortly, but the upper goal remains at $36.5k - $37k.

Figure 1: BTC’s Price Evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.

• Policymakers at the Fed have signaled that the recent rally in Treasury yields could factor into their decision, given the tightening effect higher yields have on the markets. With a 99% probability of rates holding steady, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are zeroing in on Powell’s tone and commentary.

• Stocks traded in the green ahead of Wednesday’s announcement, with the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq recording gains of 0.65%, 0.38%, and 0.48% at the closing bell. Taking the most likely scenario, a pause and no hikes, so we expect we see a $36k hit on this data following a fake out down first.

Figure 2: Probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data.