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BTC Climbing Higher
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BTC Climbing Higher

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Swissblock Insights
Feb 16, 2024
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BTC Climbing Higher
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“Never let the fear of striking out keep you from playing the game.” - Babe Ruth

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  • BTC has surged towards the $52k level, a significant resistance zone on longer-term charts, prompting some hesitation in the market. A pullback seems imminent and necessary given the recent rapid ascent of approximately 33% over the past few weeks, suggesting an unsustainable rally.

  • At this point, any pullback should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity, but you are also going to have to be cautious about jumping into the market with both feet right away. Nonetheless, in the short term, you have to look at this as a market that is more likely going higher, and therefore, every time we pull back, especially towards the $47.5k level, you should be considering if building a position.

Figure 1: Bitcoin’s Price in Context.
  • Core PPI inflation rose by 0.9 percent for the 12 months ending January 2024, indicating a slower-than-anticipated recovery. This PPI inflation data follows the CPI data, which also fell short of expectations, affecting market sentiment and suggesting that the Fed may delay rate cuts, impacting market expectations.

  • Despite these macroeconomic conditions and inflationary pressures, Bitcoin has displayed resilience, maintaining subdued volatility and hovering above the $52k level. After this macro data week, price remained relatively stable, contrasting with the volatility experienced by other financial assets such as stock market futures and Treasury yields.

Figure 2: Probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data.

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