BTC and FED's Price Battle

Crypto Compass 111

Just because something doesn’t do what you planned it to do doesn’t mean it’s useless. - Thomas Edison

• BTC experienced an uptick reaching approximately $63.2k, before receding below $62.8k. There have been repeated attempts this month to surpass $64k, all met with selling pressure. Decreasing transaction numbers indicate a market consolidation, suggesting BTC may trade within a range for the foreseeable future.

• BTC’s price performance since reaching new all-time highs in March has displayed a pattern of lower lows and lower highs, reflecting a shift towards selling pressure as both long and short-term holders profit. A failure to maintain levels above. Downward pressure may be linked to miners selling assets and concerns surrounding increased regulatory scrutiny.

Figure 1: BTC’s price in conext.

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down at 105.35 as it losses are curbed by strong market expectations and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on avoiding interest rate cuts. The direction of any potential Dollar surge hinges largely on key US data releases scheduled for this week, particularly April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday.

• The US economy's resilience in the second quarter is supporting the DXY’s rebound, propelled by cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve. The absence of imminent rate cuts, as indicated by recent Fed commentary, has shifted market sentiment towards a more hawkish stance. However, the Dollar's trajectory will be primarily influenced by upcoming data releases, such as CPI and Retail Sales figures.

Price 2: DXY’s price evolution in the last months.

• Despite a drop from the $75k level, price has struggled to resume its upward trend and remains within a large descending channel pattern, characterized by lower highs and lows. While some interpret this as indicative of a bearish reversal and downtrend, the overall momentum appears less bearish.