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Breakout Imminent
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Breakout Imminent

Uncharted Lite 9

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Swissblock Insights
Jul 21, 2023
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Swissblock Insights
Swissblock Insights
Breakout Imminent
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“Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.” - David Bowie

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  • Bitcoin price has been in a rangebound movement for nearly a month. The short-term lacks direction, but the mid-term outlook to $32k remains in play. Support in the lower level has been strengthened by the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $29.9k, while resistance remains at $31.4k.

  • Bitcoin’s price needs momentum to move up or down; however, the system lacks impulse. A hold above $30.3k (pivot point) could be considered a sign of strength and trigger momentum.

Figure 1: State of the System is a bitcoin-centric market modality visual distinguishing between bullish and bearish regimes and transitions depending on bitcoin’s performance along two axes: Risk and Directional Momentum.
  • The stock markets were broadly higher as the Dow Jones kicked off its 10th consecutive day of gains, propelled by tech and large-cap sectors. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slipped as Tesla tumbled on weak second-quarter gross margins and Netflix reported less-than-expected revenue.

  • TradFi is also having headwinds in the short term. As we approach the Fed’s hike rates decision next week, an increase in interest rates could give room for rates to climb, and the DXY can go up to 102. This would put pressure on BTC to finally kick back some volatility in the system.

Figure 2: Prive evolution of the US Dollar Index (DXY), US 10 Year Bond Yield (US02Y), SP&500 (SPX), NASDAQ (NDX) and Bitcoin (BTC).

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