Blue August Closing

Crypto Compass 50

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.'” – Sir John Templeton

---

• BTC has disappointed this month, even by August norms, which have rarely given bulls anything to cheer about. BTC is down 11% this month, and market participants are getting excited with the weekly close approaching.

• August 2023 is already on track to be BTC’s worst August since 2015. However, BTC's RSI, now at 28, is gradually rising from the oversold zone. At this point, upward price adjustments are typically expected, as sellers frequently find it challenging to commence further price drops.

Figure 1: Binance BTC Monthly Returns.

• BTC fell below $26k for a portion of the day on Friday as US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitted the prospect that the Fed will have to raise interest rates again, putting additional pressure on the crypto and stock markets.

• BTC's historical performance demonstrates that interest rates significantly impact BTC investor sentiment. Higher interest rates drive liquidity out of risky assets like BTC, whilst low-interest rates support optimistic sentiment.

Figure 2: Price evolution of BTC, S&500, Nadaq, the Dollar Index and US two-year Treasury yields.