Bitcoin Runs the Show, Altcoins Lag

Uncharted Lite 7

"Ambitions tend to remain undisturbed by realities." - Frank Herbert

• Why: Bitcoin has chalked up a more than 20% price gain since Thursday last week when we traded around the $26k level for weeks. The re-establishment of institutional interest in the market (spearheaded by Blackrock’s ETF filing) was the needed catalyst and has given some traders and investors the conviction that had been lacking in the market in recent weeks.

• Conclusion: The monthly retest is complete. The force of the move reminded us of the largest monthly candle we have seen thus far, which was a $10k move in December 2020. That move also broke us above the level of $25k. On the other hand, upside volatility has cooled down since the rally of the past few days; we need momentum back if we want to reach $35k.

Figure 1: The chart shows the evolution of the market’s sentiments on a weekly basis.

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite opened lower and are on track to snap their five-week winning streaks. Crypto correlations to TradFi remain weak as the tough week in the stock market didn’t stop BTC from jumping to $30k.

• Past experience suggests that risk-off in traditional markets can roil sentiment in the crypto market. However, all indexes were higher in June, with the S&P 500 up 4.8% and the Nasdaq up 5.4%. This week might simply be a moment for investors to recalibrate.

Figure 2: The chart shows the evolution of price of the most popular indexes. Each line corresponds to an index, labeled the same color on the right.