Bitcoin Bulls Hold the Line

Crypto Compass 33

“Don't watch the clock; do what it does. Keep going.” - Sam Levenson

• BTC faces a significant resistance zone of around $30.5k after crossing the $30k psychological threshold. BTC's price is in a consolidation phase after a swift and sharp increase after breaking out of a sizeable downward channel. A successful breakthrough at this level has the potential to unlock additional targets at $32.5k and $34k.

• The MACD crossing above the “0” level is another bullish indicator as it suggests that the momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls. This is important as it indicates that the buying pressure is increasing, which could lead to a significant price movement shortly.

Figure 1: Figure 4: BTC’s price evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.

• Jerome Powell has hinted that the Fed may raise interest rates twice more by the end of 2023. If Powell follows through on his promises, the US Dollar might experience a significant rebound.

• The impact of these rate hikes on the Bitcoin price is typically transient or fleeting. Aside from rate hikes, if the link between BTC and the stock market stays minimal, the Bitcoin price will continue fluctuating based on supply and demand dynamics, often known as capital flow. In the long run, Bitcoin price remains optimistic and has the potential to reach highs last seen in late 2021.

Figure 2: Probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data.