Any Direction Is Better Than No Direction At All

Crypto Compass 36

“Fortune sides with him who dares.” ― Virgil

• Bitcoin reacted with immediate volatility, nearly reaching $31k before returning to its starting point. Just before the CPI data was released, the Bollinger Bands tightened to their tightest level since early January, which lead to this abrupt upward move. However, buy and sell walls were placed yesterday close to the price to subdue the incoming volatility.

• Bitcoin's lack of reaction on Wednesday seems like already priced in the macro updates that are being released as it matched the expected values. Open interest remains low, with no signs of positioning going into the print.

Figure 1: BTC's price evolution with Bollinger Bands, Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.

• The annual CPI inflation rate for June is 3%, compared to 3.1% predicted by the market. Furthermore, Core CPI inflation is 4.8%, meaning that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a dovish monetary policy stance and pivot. The US dollar index (DXY) has fallen to a two-month low of 101.16, and the US yields have gone under the same fate, taking pressure off BTC.

• A low inflation rate indicates a robust economy; the reassurance in the macro environment gives BTC and altcoins the time needed to strengthen and climb higher.

  

  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.