Alt Season is Heating Up

Crypto Compass 38

“When you can't make them see the light, make them feel the heat.” - Ronald Reagan

• BTC has remained unchanged since Monday, consolidating between $29.7k and $30.1k. Ripple’s partial win in the SEC lawsuit was positive for the crypto market. Still, it failed to trigger a full-blown alt season, culminating in BTC giving back the gains above $31K.

• BTC holds the bullish rectangle support, from which a breakout may trigger a 6% move from $30k to $32k. For this breakout to come into play, bulls must defend the support at $30k and push for sustained price movement above $31.5k, representing the rectangle resistance.

Figure 1: BTC's price evolution with Cipher B, RSI and ATR indicators.

• A positive funding rate indicates some leverage in the system; another move is possible, but it will most likely be limited to 29.5k to the downside and 30.3k to the upside (unless momentum rises in either direction). Downtrending perps CVD indicates the formation of shorts; shorts have skin in the game. 

• When combined with positive funding rates, it appears that this is hedging. If not, open interest would be substantially larger (if shorts were eager to push the price lower). The market is cautiously long, and a breakout is improbable.

Figure 2: BTC’s price, CVD (difference between market buy and market sell volume), OI (total number of BTC futures or contracts in the market), Predicted Funding Rate (cost holding long positions in perpetual futures listed on major exchanges).