A Ticking Bomb

Crypto Compass 20

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin and the market overall are getting boring. The price is bound to move we’re just missing momentum.

• The long-term trend suggests the brewing move will take us to higher prices, yet longs need to step in.

• Shorts are exhausted and extreme fear spreads through the market. This has usually led to bullish moves.

• Bitcoin’s structural bottom is in: the price failed to break below the 50 and 200 SMAs which are now solid support levels. Support has held 5 tests.

• Long-term trend reinforces the view of a hard bottom. Notice how the 50 and 200 SMA crossover has led to aggressive moves. The 50 SMA crossed over the 200 SMA marking a golden crossover. Bullish trend confirmed.

• Bollinger bands are getting tighter as the price is squeezed between $26.5k and $27.1k. Tight bands lead to strong moves. The longer we trade within the consolidation zone (below the MA), the more shorts get exhausted, and the likelier we go up.

• The move will be to the upside, yet RSI is not showing any signs of momentum to get the ball rolling. RSI is currently in no man’s land.

• The increasing 1-month 25D Skew suggests that the demand for puts has increased as investors seek coverage to the downside. However, the overall put-to-call distribution indicates that the overall positioning in the options market is skewed to the upside.