$100K BTC successfully defended

Compass 164

In the Weekend Playbook, we anticipated the move that culminated in a new all-time high for Bitcoin:

It’s highly likely that Bitcoin will retest its previous all-time high and potentially establish a new one. The $108K–$110K zone is critical for these aspirations. The key question is timing: will it happen over the weekend or on Monday during Inauguration Day?

Bitcoin indeed achieved a new all-time high. However, in a sell-the-news event, it retraced to retest the $100K level, a critical psychological price milestone and successfully defended it. Now that the expansive wave from Inauguration Day has somewhat subsided, the question is: What comes next?

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A Post-Inauguration Elegy

• The post-Inauguration Day effect has had a double impact:

  • The launch of the $TRUMP memecoin and its effect on the crypto ecosystem, has sparked intense debate in recent days.

  • The omission of Bitcoin—and the broader crypto narrative—not only in Trump’s inaugural speech but also in the executive actions that took effect on the first day of his presidency (for now).

• Setting aside the controversy Trump and his circle stirred with this questionable memecoin initiative, it’s time to separate the noise from the actionable insights in the Bitcoin space. Returning to fundamentals and analyzing on-chain data will help us understand how market participants behave on the blockchain.

• While any forthcoming announcements in this area could act as catalysts for Bitcoin, other factors may play a more advanced role in shaping its trajectory. Let’s explore further.

Speedometers indicating the current state of BTC. The full dot represents the current reading and the white dot represents one week ago.

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A Fundamental Improvement.

• In previous analyses, we focused on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Index (BFI) and its components as key factors in determining the sustainability of a bullish movement. Part of our observations highlighted that liquidity was not supporting the uptrend but showed signs of consolidation, offering hope that the rally could hold if Bitcoin managed to stay above $100K.

• Currently, liquidity appears to have formed a base and is consolidating while the price stabilizes in the $101.5K–$102.5K zone, providing bullish signals.

• Similarly, network growth is trending higher, which is beginning to shape a bullish movement that could consolidate, reducing the risk of Bitcoin falling below $100K and returning to its prior range.

Network Growth vs Liquidity.

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Market Participants Are Moving Their Pieces.

• Market players are making moves that confirm trends we’ve been anticipating. Let’s analyze:

Net Position Change in BTC.

• Whales: They continue to absorb the available BTC supply, maintaining their accumulation streak that began earlier this year. It remains to be seen if this trend will hold in the coming days, following the FOMO tied to Inauguration Day.

Cumulative Net Whale Exchange Volume.

• Long-Term Holders (LTHs): They are nearing the end