Doubt usually clears once Powell speaks and the market’s army of interpreters, subtext readers, and tea leaf analysts get to work. His tone matters — a lot — and it shapes how much risk participants are willing to take.

And so it played out. Once Powell’s tone was deciphered and the fog lifted, bulls stepped in with more conviction. It was white smoke — a go-ahead for risk-on sentiment.

Wait and See.

• It was only a matter of time. Once Powell wrapped up his testimony, markets released the handbrake and got ready for the next leg up. As usual, some of his responses left room for interpretation, but one thing is now obvious: the standoff between the Fed and Trump will be a drawn-out battle.

• What does this mean? That the Fed isn’t willing to fold or throw Trump a lifeline by pivoting back to QE. The “data by data, meeting by meeting” mantra will be stretched further, with laser-focus on employment and inflation. Nothing new, really — this latest FOMC could have taken place a year ago, and we wouldn’t have noticed the difference.

• But one thing should be crystal clear: we must not overestimate the role of economic data in market moves. The data is the excuse — behind rate cut decisions lie political motivations. With Trump and Powell on opposite ends of the political spectrum, Powell won’t just wait — he’ll pay to see.

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Feeling the euphoria? We’re not.

• One thing we’ve always tracked closely is sentiment, especially after price breaks out and we see fear flip suddenly into extreme greed. It’s not just a fascinating reflection of human nature and the power of collective emotion to move markets — it also tells us whether a trend is sustainable.

• When sentiment shifts too violently from bearish to euphoric, trends usually don’t last. What we often see is a reversal that traps late bulls, who entered at the top, and leaves them panicking as their positions sink in bearish quicksand.

• So what are we seeing now?

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That’s why a basic principle of range formation is to avoid entering in the middle of the range — and certainly not at the top. The upper boundary is also well-defined: $97K–$98.5K. Historically, this area has acted as a transition zone toward $100K, with price often getting rejected both on the way up and down.

Now that Bitcoin has retraced back into the $94K–$95K zone, what are the next steps?

The Oracle of Omaha: A Changing of the Guard.

• This weekend marked the end of an era. Following Berkshire Hathaway’s annual Shareholder Meeting, Warren Buffett announced his retirement after 55 years as CEO. Under his leadership, the company delivered a historic 5 million percent return, consistently outperforming the S&P 500 since 1964.

• A legendary investor, Buffett symbolized a bygone era, one grounded in fundamentals, skepticism of hype cycles, and a strong bias toward value over speculation. As of March, he was sitting on a record cash pile and had become the largest U.S. bondholder, surpassing even the Fed.

• A long-time critic of Bitcoin, Buffett represents a generation of investors nearing extinction. At 94, he leaves behind a legacy that shaped decades of capital allocation. They called him “The Oracle of Omaha” for a reason. He foresaw markets with uncanny precision, but he never understood Bitcoin. Or did he?

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Bond Market is the Real Battlefield.

• As U.S. futures opened in the red, Bitcoin reacted with a dip, retesting the $94K level. However, Bitcoin has not only decoupled from the indices, it has outperformed them.

• This strength has been driven by Bitcoin’s fundamentals and a critical detail: the recent rally seems to have preempted a bottom in traditional markets. Bitcoin moved first, forming a local bottom ahead of equities and showing a roadmap for recovery.

• TradFi markets are stabilizing, but trade war noise and conflicting statements from Trump—one moment claiming progress with Chinese authorities, the next being contradicted—highlight one truth: investors have grown numb to this volatility.

• There’s fatigue in the market. The headlines no longer ignite fear. That alone

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• Tension continues to grip markets amid a trade war with an uncertain outcome and a U.S. Fed, led by Jerome Powell, that refuses to yield to Trump’s pressure. It’s a battle on two fronts, gradually spilling into the area that hurts the most: the economy. It’s like watching a slow-motion explosion, with debris accelerating towards us.

• U.S. indices have experienced some very dark days, and many indicators have fallen to crisis levels, similar to March 2020 during the COVID disruption or late 2008 during the financial crisis. Yet, monthly index closes show signs of hope, with a recovery that could lay the groundwork for a new bull run.

• Despite the prevailing sentiment, sharp investors recognize this environment as an opportunity above all. Bullish signals — though scarce — are emerging from unexpected places. One of them is Bitcoin, which has not only resisted pressure during the worst market days but has also started to form a bottom and is now entering a recovery phase.

• Even more importantly, Bitcoin has led the way for the broader market. Of course, systemic risk remains — exponentially heightened by the Trump-Bessent duo's risky bets. It’s as if they attempted to dangle a sword over their adversaries' heads, without realizing it was a double-edged sword slowly starting to bleed them instead.

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Of Risk and Sentiment.

• Sentiment within Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem has caught its first breath of greed after weeks dominated by fear. It’s understandable — the surrounding environment has been complex, volatile, and challenging.

• Naturally, everyone turns bullish when prices rise. A positive sign, however, is that we are not seeing an extreme shift or mindless jumps into euphoria. There's still an underlying fear, and until disruptions from the trade war dissipate and negotiations materialize, that fear and caution will remain.

• Sentiment is often capricious and volatile, so a one-sided market reading is dangerous. A more objective and colder lens is market risk itself. The indicator stayed in a high-risk regime since the last week of February, but crucially, it never hit its maximum (100). Instead, after peaking, it consistently registered lower highs.

• This kept us confident that a price collapse was unlikely (also confirmed by other indicators). Even though the indicator remained above 25 (high-risk territory), it stayed stable.

• This stabilization is also visible in the Risk Oscillator. Although still stabilizing, April showed even lower peaks, alongside a declining Market Risk Indicator. As long as the Risk Oscillator holds around 0.5, it sets the stage for a healthier price structure to continue the bullish path.

• If we look deeper into Key Risk Elements, intraday volatility has decreased significantly, but interday volatility has picked up. This implies two things: price momentum has stalled, and profit-taking (or small-loss exits) has intensified among those who bought around current prices — typically retail or short-term holders.

• This is reflected in the data: although loss-selling is still low, it has risen compared to last week.

• Buyers who entered around $94K–$95K and beyond — the mid-range zone we've been consolidating since December — are showing little trust in price momentum and are opting to exit either with a small gain or limited loss. This naturally slows price momentum, but the good news is that as selling pressure fades, the indicator can regain strength.

Fundamentals are on our Side.

• On the fundamental side, Bitcoin is showing notable strength. The BFI briefly shifted into the positive quadrant before returning to the neutral channel. What’s key here is that throughout February and March — during the height of bearish pressure — the indicator never dipped into negative territory. Had it done so and remained there without recovering, it would’ve been more than enough reason to revise our outlook on Bitcoin to bearish.

• But that wasn’t the case. Mid-February marked the bottom in liquidity, and since then, we've seen a steady inflow back into the system, with natural oscillations along the way. As price began to recover, additional liquidity followed — a key distinction. The initial wave of liquidity at the lows helped establish a price floor. The recent inflow, however, is reinforcing the price in a bullish direction.

• Nevertheless, we’ve seen a notable decrease in the number of participants. We attribute this to short-term holders exiting — those who, as we previously noted, don’t trust the sustainability of the recent pump and are either offloading or lightening their exposure to regain liquidity.

• As we’ll see next, the coming phase in Bitcoin’s price development will be largely psychological — fertile ground for retail traps.

Weekly Playbook.

• Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance in the $94K–$95K area. Looking back at previous projections, this zone has repeatedly been a congestion point. Even without indicators, we can identify this as the midpoint of an accumulation range, and therefore, a natural area of exit for short-term holders. We could label it a sort of point of control.

What’s next for Bitcoin?

• That’s why a basic principle of range formation is to avoid entering in the middle of the range — and certainly not at the top. The upper boundary is also well-defined: $97K–$98.5K. Historically, this area has acted as a transition zone toward $100K, with price often getting rejected both on the way up and down.

• This is a psychological battle. If price breaks above $94K–$95K, breakout buyers will likely get trapped around $97K–$98.5K — right before facing the major challenge: the $100K level. How tempting it would be to buy back in around that area after selling lower, just as price threatens to break six figures. Would short-term holders chase it again? If FOMO kicks in, absolutely.

• And that’s precisely the trap. Which is why buying the breakout isn’t advisable. There are two better options: wait for a pullback toward the $89K–$92K zone of interest, or apply a DCA strategy during minor dips.

• One problem with rapid price increases is overextension. And if price doesn’t correct gradually, the downside can be just as sharp as the upside. That’s why a retracement to the $89K–$92K range would be both healthy and necessary for the uptrend to remain sustainable.

• We’ll also likely see strong interest from institutional players at that level. If retail avoids the trap, and the weak hands stay sidelined, we could witness a powerful synchronization between smart money and retail — enough to push Bitcoin toward $100K with conviction and volume.

Key Takeaways.

• Markets are under dual pressure: a prolonged trade war and a Federal Reserve unwilling to accommodate political demands. Major U.S. indices hit crisis-level readings, though monthly closes hint at potential recovery and a new bull run.

• Bitcoin has shown resilience during the worst periods, signaling bottom formation and the start of a recovery — leading broader market sentiment.

• Bitcoin sentiment has shifted from fear to cautious greed — a healthy change that avoids euphoric excess.

• Market risk peaked in February but never hit extremes; lower highs in risk indicators signal decreasing danger. Intraday volatility dropped, but interday volatility rose — a sign of stalled momentum and exit activity by short-term holders.

• The Bitcoin Fundamentals Index (BFI) never turned negative, even during high bearish pressure, supporting the long-term bullish thesis. Liquidity bottomed mid-February and has since flowed back in, first stabilizing price, now reinforcing the uptrend.

• Participant count has declined, likely due to short-term holders exiting amid disbelief in the rally’s sustainability.

• Bitcoin faces key resistance at $94K–$95K, historically a congestion zone and natural exit point for short-term holders. Upper resistance lies at $97K–$98.5K, just before the major psychological milestone of $100K. A breakout through $94K–$95K could become a bull trap, as FOMO buyers may get stuck below $100K.

• Avoid chasing breakouts near mid or upper range zones. Two preferred tactics:

  • Wait for a pullback to the $89K–$92K accumulation zone.

  • Use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) during minor dips.

• A healthy correction would provide a stronger base for a sustainable move toward $100K. Institutional interest is likely to re-emerge on dips, potentially aligning with patient retail to push price higher.

If Bitcoin drops to $92K or nearby liquidity zones, we need to see an improvement in the BFI to confirm the strength of any potential recovery. Otherwise, any bounce could be driven purely by momentum or futures traders piling in, rather than genuine market demand.

The needed improvement in the Bitcoin Fundamental Index didn’t happen, as it remains in neutral territory. Instead, we saw a fundamental degradation alongside the price until Bitcoin finally bottomed at $78K.

With key support levels lost, what comes next for Bitcoin?

The Threat of Tariffs: The Sword of Damocles

• Bitcoin has collapsed from its accumulation range and has been unable to reclaim it, failing to secure daily closes above the 90-92K zone. The climate of uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Trump’s tariffs, combined with extreme sensitivity to index performance, has created a volatile environment where dips are bought without conviction, and rallies are sold off in a frenzy.

• The looming threat of U.S. tariff implementation is the Sword of Damocles that Trump is swinging over the global economy. It’s no longer about Canada, Mexico, China, or the EU—it’s a broader question: what has a greater negative impact, the mere threat or the actual implementation? Markets are pricing in something that could have a devastating effect on valuations, effectively erasing the momentum we saw with the "Trump Pump."

• This puts Bitcoin at the forefront, moving ahead of all other markets, and setting the pace for what comes next. On the surface, Trump's executive order to establish the first Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a positive signal, but since it's already priced in, it turns into a classic "sell the news" event.

• We’re seeing signs of a recovery and the early stages of a bullish rebound, but the key lies in whether market pressures fully price in the impact of Trump’s policies and stabilize. Only then can we expect a relief rally, including for Bitcoin.

  Let’s see how everything is taking shape.

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What Trump Giveth, Trump Taketh.

• One of the key questions before Bitcoin broke below the lower boundary of its accumulation range was whether, during its downward move, it would close the CME gap formed after the weekend pump that followed Trump’s victory.

• CME gaps occur when Bitcoin’s price moves sharply up or down over a weekend. They exist because CME Bitcoin futures don’t trade on weekends, so when the market reopens on Sunday at 23:00 UTC, a price gap appears on the chart.

• It’s not a strict rule, but most gaps—whether fully or partially—tend to get filled eventually. This is common in traditional finance (TradFi), where equities, indices, and futures frequently open with gaps due to restricted trading hours. In crypto, which operates 24/7, gaps technically don’t exist in spot markets, but the CME gap phenomenon still plays out as Bitcoin often moves to "fill" these gaps.

• During its sharp downtrend, Bitcoin partially closed the gap that had been open since November. More notably, last weekend created an enormous gap between

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To the upside, the main goal was to capture the $97.2K–$98.5K zone and close above it decisively. If that happened, $100K would become an immediate and relatively easy target.

Bitcoin reached the target, but what we didn’t account for was the biggest hack in crypto history happening this past Friday, the 21st—an event with unexpected consequences for both bulls and bears. Let’s take a look at where this situation is driving Bitcoin.

Bear Market News, Bullish Response.

• What we saw on Friday, beyond the circumstances of a hack triple the size of Mt. Gox, was yet another stress test for the crypto ecosystem. More importantly, it showed how this space is becoming increasingly skilled at crisis management and damage control.

• It’s rare to see an entire industry join together to keep one of its competitors from collapsing. To put things in perspective, this would be like JPMorgan and Citigroup stepping in to help Bank of America in the TradFi world. In a traditional setting, the uncertainty and turmoil caused by an event like this would have led to trading halts on stock exchanges and frozen bank transactions to prevent a bank run.

• Instead, we saw Bybit process 100% of withdrawals and restore its 1:1 ETH reserves. Even more remarkable was the CEO stepping forward in a live broadcast to clarify the situation. We are far from the days of "deploying more capital—steady lads" and "FTX is fine, assets are fine." If we were looking for signs of maturity in the crypto space, this is one.

• And despite the uncertainty, we didn’t see a total market collapse. Just as good news isn’t pumping prices, bad news isn’t triggering major sell-offs either. This month alone, we’ve had memecoin scandals, the biggest liquidation event, and now the largest hack in history—yet Bitcoin is still holding the $95K level. That can only mean one thing: accumulation.

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Adjusting Expectations.

• Market sentiment has leaned toward fear—something that, in a bull market, translates to caution among participants. At this stage, it’s not an exaggeration to say that sentiment isn’t what we’d typically expect during a bull market, at least not like it was at this point in the previous cycle.

• As mentioned before, sentiment isn’t reacting strongly to either good or bad news. This is because market participants have adjusted their expectations—not just regarding potential returns, but also in terms of the narratives that can sustain aggressive, long-term growth.

• What we’re seeing now is Bitcoin consolidating for extended periods before breaking out, sweeping out early entrants looking for quick gains—not to mention overleveraged traders trying to time the next major move upward.

• That’s not how things are playing out. Every time we see an excessive spike

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The $94K–$95K zone remains a highly attractive target, as it sits at the midpoint of the wick on the daily timeframe.

As we can see, the price has reached this zone but has barely moved from it. This prolonged flat price action increases the likelihood of a structural break—but the big question is, in which direction will it move? Join us as we uncover the answer.

A Moment of Truth.

• The past few days have been a tough test for the crypto ecosystem—and not just due to Bitcoin’s stagnant price action or the harsh correction in altcoins. There’s a growing sense of moral defeat following the $LIBRA rug pull scandal, a memecoin "promoted" by Argentina’s President Javier Milei in an X post, which he later deleted. The fallout? 86% of LIBRA traders have realized losses exceeding $1K, with total losses surpassing $250 million.

• This controversial and questionable incident, reminiscent of the $TRUMP token launch, has triggered a public relations crisis for the broader crypto ecosystem.

• We must not forget that a large segment of the public is unfamiliar with Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem. For many, Bitcoin and crypto are synonymous—a perception that, while partially true (since Bitcoin was the catalyst for everything crypto-related), does not account for the fact that the crypto industry has developed its own narratives. However, despite their conceptual independence, crypto assets remain highly correlated and sensitive to Bitcoin's movements, as its dominance reinforces its hegemony.

• Because of this Bitcoin-crypto association, we are now witnessing a defining opportunity: the conceptual separation of Bitcoin from the broader crypto ecosystem. While Bitcoin is increasingly discussed in terms of adoption as a store of value, a treasury asset, and even an inflation hedge, the crypto ecosystem—despite hosting technologically relevant blockchain projects—is often represented by memecoins and scam-ridden shitcoins. These assets, fueled by speculative gambling instincts (cue pump & dump schemes), tend to generate more noise than actual innovation.

• This crisis could ultimately benefit Bitcoin in the long run by reinforcing its conceptual distinction from the broader crypto industry, which currently faces a crisis of identity.

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A Flat Price Pattern, False Breakouts: Caution is Warranted.

• Bitcoin’s price momentum has timidly moved out of the bearish zone and has discreetly entered the bullish zone, but without much fanfare. This suggests that the price lacks the necessary momentum to turn decisively bullish, despite having remained sideways over the past 10 days.

• We see this reflected in the Risk Index, which is signaling an environment where the price structure is beginning to show weakness. The increase in risk suggests nothing other than growing bearish pressure, which could lead to a breakdown of the last support level before a retest of $92K.

• Certainly, the impulse from $93.5K has helped alleviate some of this pressure, and we can see that risk has slightly receded. However,

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BTC has left a large wick on the daily timeframe, signaling an imbalance that is often filled, either partially or completely, in the short term… Similarly, considering that the midpoint of the wick on the daily timeframe is $95K, this could be a realistic target if enough liquidity accumulates in that area.

With the price at $96K, Bitcoin briefly approached $95K, a zone that bulls have defended after being beaten down in their attempt to reclaim $100K. The bears’ days are numbered, but the big question remains: will there be another drop, or are we already preparing to start climbing from here? Let’s start gathering clues to answer that question.

A Week of Indecision.

• It has been a complicated week, not so much for Bitcoin, which has managed to hold its price zones, but for altcoins, which have struggled to recover after capitulating, generating a lot of doubt among investors.

• This is not necessarily a bad thing, as FUD creates opportunities to assess the market. However, what is starting to weigh on investor expectations is not just the need to be more selective, but also less ambitious in potential returns.

• And in a week like this, where Bitcoin had confirmation of very important fundamentals, yet the price remained flat after a V-shape recovery that lost momentum—and more importantly, failed to reclaim the psychological threshold of $100K—all of this contributes to a sense of apathy.

• But for those who have been in Bitcoin long enough, they know that when price action gets boring, a breakthrough isn’t far away.

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Sentiment Decline

We have reasonably seen a decline in Bitcoin and crypto market sentiment. Let’s not forget that we just experienced Monday’s flash crash due to the trade war, and although it was short-lived and indices didn’t collapse, the effect on altcoins was devastating.

• In fact, fear levels have returned to pre-Trump pump levels, similar to early October, when Bitcoin started climbing from $60K. If we look at Bitcoin’s current cycle, these fear levels have often marked a bottom or a near-bottom, and historically,

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Bitcoin is currently retesting the $97.2K–$98.5K zone, which has served as both a short-term refuge and a resistance level. If this zone is lost, the next step would be to revisit $92K.

That’s exactly what happened. BTC corrected to $91.3K, rebounded strongly, and closed the CME gap at $102K—a move triggered by the weekend’s drop.

Now that Bitcoin is correcting again, what’s next? Are we setting up for consolidation, or is more volatility ahead? Let’s break it down.

Trade War Ended Before It Even Started, Right?

• The agreements reached by the U.S. with its counterparts in Mexico and Canada brought relief to the markets, which quickly recovered their losses within hours—as if nothing had happened.

• But something did happen. Officially, over $2 billion was liquidated from the crypto market. However, according to the CEO of Bybit—the second-largest exchange by market cap—the real figure could be much higher. He claims that liquidations over the last 72 hours might be between $8–10 billion, as the $2 billion figure only accounts for Bybit itself.

• This raises an urgent debate about the role of exchanges in providing transparency regarding futures trading, leverage, and liquidations. If the Bybit CEO’s claims are accurate, then not only this flash crash—but also previous liquidation events, including collapses like Terra/Luna and FTX—could have been far more severe than initially estimated.

• This leads to an important question for the sustainability and credibility of the crypto industry: Is the lack of transparency on liquidations intentional? Could exchanges be withholding crucial data about how they manage futures trading to protect their own interests?

• Right now, transparency is a major issue in an industry built on blockchain values—one of which is precisely openness and verifiability.

Is the Correction Over?

• Bitcoin’s drop to the $97.2K–$98.5K zone was a move we had anticipated as part of a bearish divergence on the daily timeframe. From there, BTC wicked down to $91.3K, marking an additional 6% correction.

• From Sunday’s opening price of $101.5K to the $91.3K low, Bitcoin saw a 10% correction. But in perspective, look at the impact on Layer 1s:

  • ETH: -33%

  • XRP: -40%

  • SOL: -20%

• Bitcoin did what was expected—it corrected within the anticipated range and reacted from there. But the reaction in altcoins is concerning.

A Structural Shift in Market Dynamics?

• Bitcoin’s correction triggered an outsized impact on altcoins, even among top-tier Layer 1s.

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In this weekend's playbook, we anticipated the bearish movement that we are witnessing at this moment:

• We’ve already mentioned that Bitcoin is forming a bearish divergence on the daily timeframe, and this scenario remains in play. The expected price action following this is for Bitcoin to retest at least the $100K zone and possibly $97.2K–$98.5K. The latter seems to be the most probable support area to be retested next week.

We expected this bearish movement to develop over the next week, but the decline is accelerating, making it necessary to reassess the movement and explore the possibilities of a bullish rebound. Let’s analyze the situation.

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• Bitcoin is currently retesting the $97.2K–$98.5K zone, which has served as both a short-term refuge and a resistance level.

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• Given the negative sentiment, it’s highly likely that the focus will now shift to liquidating bearish positions, as there is liquidity between $103K and $106K.

Jerome Powell's mixed tone gave the markets a boost, and Bitcoin positioned itself in the $104K–$106K zone but failed to break out toward new highs. More will be needed for a rebound, but that option seems to be fading. Let’s see what’s next for Bitcoin.

No Comments.

• Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, had the markets on edge, in a week that was already shaping up to be highly complex due to the crisis sparked by Nvidia and the emergence of DeepSeek’s AI model. The concern wasn’t about rate cuts—everyone already knew there would be no change—but rather about his speech and intervention. Everyone wanted to know if he would pick up the baton left by Trump and respond to the pressure to lower interest rates and continue the pivot that began in September.

• "No comment," was Powell’s response when questioned by a reporter, and the topic was not brought up again. This leaves us in a scenario where, even if the Fed Chairman does not yield to President Trump’s demands, Trump will not back down. This sets the stage for growing tensions between both sides. Trump wasted no time and posted that the Fed has done a “terrible job” controlling inflation, regulating banks, and taking measures to "unleash lending" for people and businesses.

• This highlights that the dispute is far from over. Neither side is going to hold back in achieving their objectives, which adds uncertainty for investors. Meanwhile, we can assume that it’s now official: inflation is here to stay. We are witnessing a resurgence—a second inflationary wave.

• How Bitcoin reacts to this environment in the short term will be decisive for its sustainability in the medium and long term. Much attention has been given to the fact that Bitcoin has not taken off despite having strong fundamentals in its favor, but we should also note that it hasn’t collapsed despite an uncertain macro environment . Today's drop from $106K to $101.5K was a reaction to the decline in stock indices, but it was also a complementary move, as we had already anticipated a downturn from those levels.

• Now, we need to see how Bitcoin defines its next moves in this increasingly complex environment.

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The Fundamentals Were Signaling It.

• The BFI (Bitcoin Fundamentals Index) fell to 47, placing it still in neutral territory but in a weaker position compared to last week. This signals that the short-term bullish trend is hanging by a thread.

• In particular, network growth has declined to bearish levels previously seen in early January. However, this isn’t our biggest concern, as the network remains strong and stable. Liquidity remains the major issue—it has broken below its consolidation range and is now approaching levels last seen in May. Back then, this was expected, as it occurred in the weeks following the halving. After hitting that low, liquidity began to recover.

• Thus, we should keep this level in mind as a reference and a potential short-term support from which a

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Failing to break out toward the $108K–$110K zone...indicates that Bitcoin lacks the necessary strength and volume for a move upward. This makes a retest of the $101.5K–$102.5K zone imminent.

The market sell-off, triggered by the collapse of Nvidia and chip stocks, painted the Nasdaq red and pushed Bitcoin down to $97.8K. However, Bitcoin has now returned to the zone we initially anticipated: $101.5K—$102.5K, and currently, it’s even slightly above trading at $102.8K. 

With ongoing pressure on tech stocks, the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and earnings season just around the corner, the environment for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem remains highly complex.

The Black Whale

• The AI race has taken a new turn with the emergence of DeepSeek, a model projected to be more efficient in cost and performance, potentially matching or even outperforming OpenAI models. This disruption has created waves in the markets, and even before the CME Futures opened and markets began trading, another "Black Monday" was anticipated.

• And it lived up to the expectation: Nvidia closed the day with a blood-red 18% loss, wiping out over $590 billion in market cap. This erased all gains since October 2024 and marked the largest one-day market cap loss in history. The Nasdaq closed down 3.3%, with losses heavily concentrated in tech stocks and risk assets.

• DeepSeek’s emergence is crucial because, if its costs and hardware claims are confirmed, it could have severe repercussions—not only for Nvidia and chip companies, which would face reduced demand for their products, but also for giants like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. These companies, having invested heavily in data center infrastructure, might find that they’ve been overpaying for a potentially overvalued approach.

• This initial reaction might only be the beginning. While the impact hasn’t yet spread across the entire market, it raises the possibility of a bubble deflating slowly rather than bursting suddenly—a scenario that could prove even more devastating, dragging broader markets and carrying severe economic implications.

• What’s truly disruptive may not be what we’re witnessing now, but what’s yet to come. This might just be the Black Whale’s first wave forming.

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Macro Complexity.

• Bitcoin remains closely correlated with indices, particularly the Nasdaq. From the opening of CME Futures, a negative market session on Monday was expected.

• After such a sharp Monday drop, a rebound from lows in the coming days seems likely as the market digests and assesses DeepSeek's implications. The key question is

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Bitcoin’s movement remains bullish, initially targeting the $104K–$106K zone. Once there, if enough liquidity is gathered, the movement could extend to the next bear liquidation area at $108K–$110K.

Bitcoin reached $107K but failed to hit the $108K–$110K target. It couldn’t sustain its bullish momentum or and is now back at the bottom of the $104K–$106K zone, despite the positive catalysts surrounding Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem.

Now that the good omen so long anticipated for Bitcoin has passed, what’s next?

A Historic Day for Bitcoin

• After Trump’s inauguration and the launch of his memecoin last weekend, it seemed like we had reached the peak of the wave, with only a slow decline ahead. But it didn’t take long for the wave to surge again, reaffirming what many of us were already anticipating.

• Specifically, the revocation of SAB 121, which restricted banks from providing custody services for Bitcoin and other crypto assets, paves the way for greater institutionalization—in other words, the banking of Bitcoin. Additionally, the signing of an executive order to create a "digital assets" reserve marks a significant milestone.

• While this aligns with what much of the broader crypto community has been waiting for, it has left many Bitcoiners uneasy. The idea of a strategic reserve that includes Bitcoin alongside XRP or SOL feels inconsistent with Bitcoin’s ethos.

• Nevertheless, this doesn’t detract from the significance of what has transpired—an event few would have thought possible so soon, especially considering it’s only been a year since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs.

• What we’ve witnessed over the past few days has been more of a “sell the news” event, though not a full selloff, but certainly marked by significant volatility. Once this storm subsides, we’ll likely be able to assess more calmly what comes next and whether the framework currently taking shape can truly materialize.

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Fundamentals suggest an upward movement, but why haven't we broken past 110K?

If Bitcoin has been able to sustain and consolidate above $100K, it's due to the recovery in liquidity and network growth. This scenario is one we've been closely monitoring, and the two conditions we considered crucial for the next upward breakout—improved

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It’s highly likely that Bitcoin will retest its previous all-time high and potentially establish a new one. The $108K–$110K zone is critical for these aspirations. The key question is timing: will it happen over the weekend or on Monday during Inauguration Day?

Bitcoin indeed achieved a new all-time high. However, in a sell-the-news event, it retraced to retest the $100K level, a critical psychological price milestone and successfully defended it. Now that the expansive wave from Inauguration Day has somewhat subsided, the question is: What comes next?

A Post-Inauguration Elegy

• The post-Inauguration Day effect has had a double impact:

  • The launch of the $TRUMP memecoin and its effect on the crypto ecosystem, has sparked intense debate in recent days.

  • The omission of Bitcoin—and the broader crypto narrative—not only in Trump’s inaugural speech but also in the executive actions that took effect on the first day of his presidency (for now).

• Setting aside the controversy Trump and his circle stirred with this questionable memecoin initiative, it’s time to separate the noise from the actionable insights in the Bitcoin space. Returning to fundamentals and analyzing on-chain data will help us understand how market participants behave on the blockchain.

• While any forthcoming announcements in this area could act as catalysts for Bitcoin, other factors may play a more advanced role in shaping its trajectory. Let’s explore further.

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A Fundamental Improvement.

• In previous analyses, we focused on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Index (BFI) and its components as key factors in determining the sustainability of a bullish movement. Part of our observations highlighted that liquidity was not supporting the uptrend but showed signs of consolidation, offering hope that the rally could hold if Bitcoin managed to stay above $100K.

• Currently, liquidity appears to have formed a base and is consolidating while the price stabilizes in the $101.5K–$102.5K zone, providing bullish signals.

• Similarly, network growth is trending higher, which is beginning to shape a bullish movement that could consolidate, reducing the risk of Bitcoin falling below $100K and returning to its prior range.

Market Participants Are Moving Their Pieces.

• Market players are making moves that confirm trends we’ve been anticipating. Let’s analyze:

• Whales: They continue to absorb the available BTC supply, maintaining their accumulation streak that began earlier this year. It remains to be seen if this trend will hold in the coming days, following the FOMO tied to Inauguration Day.

• Long-Term Holders (LTHs): They are nearing the end

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What might seem like the plot of a farce—pushing absurd and even grotesque situations to their limits in a comedic tone—adds another twist to a story that began when Trump announced his involvement at the Bitcoin Conference. The legitimacy gained by the next U.S. president within Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem has been irreversibly damaged in the long-term, although in the short term, it may represent unprecedented hype in the crypto ecosystem.

Furthermore, for external observers in financial circles and governments, who already view Bitcoin skeptically, this move (if we can call it that)—launching a memecoin days before taking office and weaving it into the public agenda and discourse—takes on an even more negative connotation. It turns the situation into a satire: those who equate Bitcoin with crypto, memecoins, and fraudulent schemes like pump-and-dumps and ponzis now have their suspicions confirmed, even though no pump-and-dump scheme has been carried out yet or is verifiable.

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Why Is This Relevant?

We stand at a crossroads as Inauguration Day approaches. Will the next move be a "sell the news" event, or will we see consolidation followed by new highs? As discussed in the previous analysis, there are arguments for and against further bullish momentum, but the main threat remains FOMO.

Much attention should be paid to Trump’s remarks about Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem. However, given this recent event, it’s reasonable to wonder whether Trump himself understands the distinction between Bitcoin and crypto—a distinction crucial to many in the space. The market’s interpretation of his words will likely dictate the price action.

The pressing question is: with a memecoin at the center of attention (and its tokenomics revealing that the developers hold 80% of the supply—arguably making it more of a shitcoin than a memecoin), isn’t this a signal that we might see a market dump after Inauguration Day?

This isn’t an unfounded concern, and caution is warranted. We must remain vigilant and avoid FOMO. The key lies in Trump’s speech. While we may see a euphoric price surge in response, the real market movement could be revealed afterward.

How Bizarre

When we first saw the $TRUMP memecoin announcement on Twitter, we thought it was a hack. As hours passed, it became clear it was legitimate. How could the next president of the United States—mere hours away from taking office, discussing a strategic Bitcoin reserve—launch a memecoin?

Ethical considerations aside, this is being interpreted as Trump leveraging his alignment with Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem to reap financial benefits by pumping his own holdings—a move reminiscent of DOGE and Elon Musk's style. This is not only a fraudulent scheme but also one that undermines the legitimacy of his other stances, no matter how pro-Bitcoin they may appear.

Nevertheless, we shouldn’t overlook the possibility that, if executed properly—and if the 80% of tokens held in the developers’ wallets remain untouched over time without triggering a dump—this could potentially create a new setup that builds greater trust and eases the initial skepticism, which, to be fair, is not unjustified.

This is the optimistic view, avoiding the worst assumptions. However, following the announcement of the Melania token—$MELANIA—by the soon-to-be First Lady of the United States, $TRUMP plummeted by over 40%. The market reacted negatively, and the entire situation has become a self-explanatory joke.

This bizarre turn of events feels like the predictable ending of a farce: ridicule and mockery. Let’s hope this doesn’t create more noise and that we can refocus on what truly matters—Bitcoin.

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The price could consolidate in a small range to gather strength and aim for $97.2K-$98.5K again. However, the $95K-$97K zone is "no man's land," and a breakdown below $94K could lead to another test of $92K. Do the bulls have the arsenal to counter the bears? As it stands, liquidations are accumulating to the upside, favoring the bulls with a higher volume of bear liquidations.

Now that Bitcoin is trading at $104K and approaching the all-time high zone, everything is looking green in the middle of winter. Will this extend beyond Trump’s Inauguration Day? Let’s find out.

A National Priority

• At the beginning of the week, bearish predictions suggested that Bitcoin was heading directly and without pause to $74K. Now, after Bitcoin touched $105K, the bears have retreated to their caves, waiting for the bullish fever to subside. All it took was a single piece of news (or rather, a rumor): Trump is reportedly planning to include an executive order related to Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem among the series of orders he intends to issue on his first day in office.

• Since then, Bitcoin has been pumping and has reached the culmination of this move with another significant implication: Donald Trump plans to issue an executive order making crypto a national policy priority. This has given bulls renewed confidence, driving the price to a new all-time high.

• Beyond the FOMO, it’s important to recognize that this rally is not solely a product of the news. First come the technical and on-chain fundamentals that support the price—then the news follows.

• Amid this euphoria, it’s easy to overlook technical and fundamental aspects that might later suggest a different picture than what is currently unfolding. It’s crucial to determine whether Bitcoin has the support to continue rising or if this is merely a short-lived relief rally.

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Fear Disappears When Bitcoin Rises

• For some traders, red candles on a chart signal a time to sell; for others, they’re a buying opportunity. Neither approach is inherently right or wrong—it’s a matter of perspective. Some buy when chart candles turn green, while others are already seeking an exit, and vice versa. These dynamics are driven by FUD and FOMO, which fuel all markets.

• Currently, we’re not seeing a sudden, irrational jump into extreme greed. Sentiment is already in a moderate greed territory. Could it be that traders are staying on the sidelines, not fully believing in the rally?

• The positive takeaway here is that during a rally like the current one—so far spanning a 17% weekly range (from $89.5K to $105K)—we haven’t seen sentiment quickly shift into greed. This indicates a price increase that, in terms of sentiment, is more sustainable and tends to last longer, though this isn’t a guarantee.

• In a previous analysis, we suggested that this rally could be a “sell the news” event or that the real action might begin after Inauguration Day.

• In terms of price momentum, Bitcoin has recovered and is once again in bullish territory. This is a positive sign, especially because the recovery coincides with the price pump. When both price and momentum rise together, it reflects strength—this is not a concern.

• Additionally, risk has returned

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For the weekend, the price could consolidate in a small range to gather strength and aim for $97.2K-$98.5K again. However, the $95K-$97K zone is 'no man's land,' and a breakdown below $94K could lead to another test of $92K.

Over the weekend, the swift rise to $96K was quickly countered by the bears, turning what seemed like a promising bullish move into a classic bull trap that has left us again above $94K after retesting $92K.

The macro environment isn't making things easy for Bitcoin. With the PPI data release scheduled for Tuesday and U.S. inflation data coming on Wednesday, the stage is set for a volatile environment that could be decisive in defining Bitcoin's next move.

What it Gives, it Takes.

• After Bitcoin spent seven months in consolidation before hitting a new all-time high, discussing another consolidation period between $92K and $100K feels disheartening for the bulls. So far, the "bull run," where an altcoin pumps 3x in one week and continues the next, hasn’t materialized. The "easy mode" that was expected to activate once Bitcoin broke out of its previous accumulation range feels more like a distant dream.

• Nevertheless, for seasoned Bitcoiners, this is just another step toward Bitcoin asserting itself with a definitive show of strength. It may mark a transition into an era of institutional legitimization, followed by cultural adoption.

• Previously, we speculated that Bitcoin's movement before, during, or after Trump’s Inauguration Day might be a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. But what if the reverse is true? What if Bitcoin is gearing up for the bullish move that breaks out of its current accumulation range after Inauguration Day?

• The news that Donald Trump will be issuing executive orders regarding Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem, clearing the path for adoption, is precisely the fundamental scenario we had been anticipating. We must recognize that, beyond Bitcoin's immediate environment, very few people are actually talking about Bitcoin. This could be the breakthrough it needs to become a widely discussed public topic.

• We’re in a market environment where macroeconomic factors, geopolitical context, and inherent risks all play critical roles. Once the new government takes office, many of the uncertainties and tensions surrounding the transition could ease. Until then, we must prepare for the opportunities this scenario could bring.

• Let’s examine how Bitcoin is shaping up in this atmosphere of expectation, uncertainty, and hope.

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A Little Fear Isn’t So Bad After All.

• Bitcoin sentiment deteriorated over the past week after the price seemed poised to break out of the $92K-$100K accumulation range and resume the bull run (which would have also activated altcoins). However, the price plummeted following Tuesday's macro data release, raising caution in the markets.

• Sentiment has returned to neutral territory after briefly entering the "greed" zone. These spikes in sentiment, as we've seen, are on a downward trend. If Bitcoin breaks below the lower part of the range at $91.5K, sentiment will likely turn red, signaling "fear."

• Zooming out, we remain in a long-term bullish trend. Historically, moments of "fear" on this indicator coincide with market bottoms and the start of a rebound.

Warning Signs.

• Price momentum has slightly recovered after last week's decline, where it transitioned from bullish to bearish for the first time in three months.

• In previous analyses, we noted that Price Momentum, in tandem with the Risk Index, often signals trend changes and volatility in either direction. We also mentioned that as long as the Risk Index remained at zero (as it had since late September), we were unlikely to see a bearish breakdown of the range that could dangerously drive prices lower.

• Now, the Risk Index has

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Bitcoin needs to consolidate within the $97.2K-$98.5K zone to stage a decisive attack on $100K. Holding this zone is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum, but equally important is breaking $100K with strength and volume. Notably, this particular rally hasn't been accompanied by significant volume, making this aspect critical to watch.

The consolidation, as well as the attack on $100K took place, albeit it was short lived, as we now see BTC trading at $94.7K. What happened?

To $100K and Back Again to $92K.

• It’s the first full week of the year, and Bitcoin began by briefly trading above $100K, only to lose momentum hours later, falling back into the support range of $97.2K-$98.5K, and subsequently testing the lower part of the range at $92K.

• For now, it appears that those betting on Bitcoin collapsing and revisiting the previous high of $74K (and thus filling the CME gap) have renewed hope for their bearish scenarios to materialize—a pretension exactly where the bulls want to trap the bears.

• We are 10 days away from Trump’s Inauguration Day, and potentially we are kicking off the pre-Inauguration Day rally ahead of the January 20th event. The big question remains: will this rally built on speculation that President Trump acknowledges crypto on his inaugural day turn into a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, leading to a Bitcoin correction before or during that day? Or will the price finally break out of this range, reaching a new all-time high?

• Nevertheless, before reaching that pivotal moment, Bitcoin faces significant hurdles to overcome within the $92K-$100K range. The coming week, much like the current one, is packed with macroeconomic fundamentals (US Inflation Rate and PPI) that promise volatility and will likely sway investor sentiment.

• From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is well-positioned to weather the upcoming challenges. Now, it might be the bears' turn to brace for the bulls' charge.

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Price Momentum Degrades, Without Major Drawdown Risk.

Price momentum has deteriorated considerably due to recent price action, particularly after the dump from $102.5K and the bulls' inability to maintain the price above support levels. As we can see, we haven't seen a drop from bullish to bearish territory like this since the week in April before the halving.

• This does not mean we will see a further deterioration of price momentum from where the indicator currently stands, as one more ingredient is needed for a decline in price momentum derived from a price capitulation. For this to happen, we need to see an increase in risk. Observe how that spike in risk to the upside coincides with a deterioration in price momentum to the downside.

• In the event of a price capitulation, and we see levels of $86K or even as low as $74K, one way to calculate the price bottom would be to observe how these two indicators combine to signal a peak in risk and a bottom in price momentum.

• With that said, let's look at what factors influence the determination of whether bearish pressure has ended or if there is more downhill ahead.

• We see that the Futures-to-Spot ratio remains in favor of Spot, which means there is more value and buying in Spot than speculation in futures contracts. However, this type of market position saw a rebound after hitting an annual low in December, and due to low volume and little market activity in the last two weeks of the year, this rebound was not reflected in a price improvement for traders.

• In the very short term, it was possible to make profits, but practically only in intraday movements and very little in interday movements. This is something we addressed in the playbook with a movement like BNB's. However,

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Notice how the sudden price drop was driven by a strong spot sell (significant compared to the low-volume spot buying). It's also noteworthy that this spot sell was smaller than during the previous revisit to $92K. Are the bears running out of ammunition?

Now we see that the bears have given up some ground as the price rebounds toward the $97.2K-$98.5K zone. Are the bears completely out of the game? Let’s dive in.

Ride the Lightning.

• A new year begins with the caution of someone approaching calm waters, aware they might turn turbulent, clouded by what lies beneath the serene surface: In 2020, when an imminent recession was anticipated, the opposite occurred—a massive quantitative easing in response to the economic constraints caused by COVID-19.

• Now, many economic indicators point to a recession, but for investors, this feels like a "boy who cried wolf" scenario. Let’s not forget that the economy and financial markets currently are uncorrelated; the economy may flash warnings while indices, equities, and risk assets keep climbing, ignoring these signals.

• This may continue—but for how long? In our view, the "blow-off top" phase has begun. As this unfolds, we must ride the wave, gradually seeking an exit once the explosive move is over. For now, Ride the Lightning.

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A Matter of Feeling.

• The last two weeks of the year, marked by fewer participants and lower volumes, allowed sentiment to reset to neutral territory. This sets a good foundation for gradual improvement in the coming weeks, accompanying a price recovery.

• Looking at Bitcoin from a sentiment perspective, and considering the post-halving bull market setup, sentiment has spent more time in neutral territory than in zones of greed—or even fear. Bitcoin has consolidated for so long that sentiment has remained restrained, with only two distinct phases of greed and euphoria: Q1 with the initial rally and Q4 during the "Trump Pump."

• Beyond these phases, we haven’t yet experienced the euphoric stage where prices skyrocket parabolically, and altcoins steal the spotlight with 2x, 5x, or even 10x gains. This phase might still be brewing—a movement that could push sentiment to irrational extremes, signaling a market peak.

• In the short term, however, sentiment looks favorable for a sustainable bull run, potentially driving prices above $100K—without losing composure in the process.

Price Momentum Loses Steam, but Price Recovers.

• As Bitcoin pumps and revisits the $97.2K-$98.5K zone, price momentum appears slightly bearish. Why?

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Currently, Bitcoin has formed a range between $92K and $100K. Breaking the edges of the range could lead to false breakouts that trap traders (both bulls and bears), with the market later moving in the opposite direction. On the downside, we could temporarily break the range and create a deviation into the $90K-$86.5K zone.

We have briefly visited this deviation area, but the price hasn't rebounded yet, as BTC trades at $93.8K. Are we close to forming a bottom, or is there more downward pressure ahead?

A Year to Remember.

• It has been a remarkable year for Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem. BTC/USD is about to close an annual candle with a 120% gain and has surged 475% since bottoming out after the FTX implosion.

• Nevertheless, the most significant developments have been on the fundamental side. This year marked the beginning of institutional adoption. This is no small feat for an asset that has been dismissed as a Ponzi scheme, magical internet money, and other derogatory terms.

• Although still viewed with suspicion and skepticism, the fact that there is talk of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and its value as a store of value being debated is a symbolic and moral victory for those who have believed in Bitcoin from the start. It represents an escape from the fiat system and kicks off a path to freedom from centralized power.

• To you, who have been with us this year, we thank you for your trust.

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BFI is Weakening, but there is a Silver Lining.

• The BFI has returned to neutral territory after spending nearly two months in the bullish quadrant. The system shows signs of weakening, anticipating deeper corrections. However, not everything is a negative reading in this context.

• As we can see, among the components of the BFI, liquidity gives us a reading of 34, but network growth registers at 75. This highlights that only one of the elements is showing weakness, while the other remains in its bullish trend and in positive territory.

• There are specific factors that have influenced the weakening of liquidity, largely due to seasonal factors. A recovery could be seen at the beginning of the year.

• The number of accumulation addresses has been on a short-term bearish trend since October. This movement coincides with the exit of long-term holders and a distribution phase among whales.

• We observe a similar trend with the number of addresses holding more than $100k, which is currently pausing its upward trend. Despite this, it remains in an accumulation phase.

• Where the liquidity outflow is most evident is in the number of active addresses. In December, it broke its upward trend, falling below both short- and long-term trends.

• We note that this decline in liquidity is due to seasonal factors. As the year ends, there is profit-taking and liquidity withdrawals from the system to reposition and reconfigure portfolios for the beginning of the next year.

• How quickly liquidity can return to the system depends on how the year shapes up for investors. We have indications that this could happen by comparing the current moment with the previous Bitcoin bull market phase.

• Let’s examine the period from December 2020 to February 2021, which corresponds to a similar market cycle phase and comparable price action.

• At that time, liquidity outflows coincided with a price correction, but network growth persisted. Similarly, when the price stabilized and new liquidity began to flow into the market, the price rebounded strongly. This suggests we could potentially see a price pump once liquidity returns to the market.

USDT or not USDT? That is the question.

• The delisting of USDT from Coinbase following the December 30 implementation of the MiCA regulation in the European Union has stirred some level of concern. However, this FUD hasn't been as intense due to low market activity during the year's final stretch.

• The viability of stablecoins in Europe is being reshaped by MiCA. Tether, unable or unwilling to comply with the new requirements, decided to pull its stablecoin from the European market. Is this because Tether lacks transparency or refuses to undergo audits by European authorities?

• This stems from MiCA's requirement that a significant portion of stablecoin liquidity be deposited in European banks, contrasting with Tether's typical operations. Tether claims its assets are backed 1:1, with underlying collateral being liquid.

• However, Tether's business model involves backing liquidity with short-term bonds, which serve as the underlying collateral for USDT issuance. Tether "mints" new USDT tokens equivalent to the fiat amount deposited or the bond's value. These stablecoins are issued across various blockchain networks, including Ethereum, Tron, Solana, and Bitcoin (via Omni Layer).

• How much of USDT’s market cap will shift to USDC, backed by Coinbase and Circle, and fully compliant with MiCA? More critically, does this withdrawal risk a USDT depeg or market destabilization?

• In our view,

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The point of control we need to reach to resume the short-term bullish trend is $99.5K, but for that to happen, Bitcoin’s momentum must penetrate the $97.2K-$98.5K resistance, a zone from which we were previously rejected.

As we observed, Bitcoin was rejected at that resistance and is now in a neutral point within the range it has been building. What is next?

Ace in the Hole.

• This Friday marked the last options market expiry of the year, with $14 billion worth of Bitcoin expiring. The "max pain" level was at $85K, which created FUD over a potential correction to that zone. In the end, Bitcoin held its ground, staying within the neutral zone of the range it has been forming.

• The Christmas rally was cut short by a move that retraced all the progress made in the previous days. However, it is still possible that Bitcoin has one last card up its sleeve to deliver a bullish move that could turn into a year-end rally.

• Although volume remains low, there is potential for a movement that could wake up market participants and trap bears expecting a price collapse. Low-volume periods demand greater caution, as Bitcoin's apparent inactivity can often be misleading.

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Living on the Range.

• The price momentum has remained in bullish territory, though it is feeling the strain of low volume and liquidity. It appears to be hanging by a thread, but we have reasons to believe it will hold and rebound in the final days of the year and the first week of 2025.

• Bitcoin is currently in a range between $90K and $100K, right mid-range, making this a neutral zone. A breakout is necessary to visit one of the range edges and define the movement.

• Profit-taking above $90K and near $100K has persisted among market participants (no surprise, as long-term holders continue to take profits). However, this selling pressure is gradually losing intensity. For price momentum to resume within the bullish territory, profit-taking must stabilize, and we need to avoid large volumes of selling that create spikes on the chart.

• Due to the low volume, we see that the futures-to-spot ratio has bounced slightly from its yearly lows, indicating that futures positions have dominated over spot positions since this week.

• This is confirmed by looking at the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), which shows neutral territory, driven by the aggressive profit-taking near the $108K all-time high. At the same time, this bearish pressure is losing momentum.

• Likewise, we see a similar scenario in the Futures CVD, with reduced interest in taking

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